Miami Heat +9.5 -110 (2U)
Reason: Overreation to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic injuries.
The loss of Adebayo might be a blessing in disguise. He's too small and his lack of shooting is a liability vs the Lakers bigs. His man can just hover around the paint and help on any drive penetrations making it difficult for anyone to get consistent open shots.
Miami's best shot at beating the Lakers is having 5 capable shooters on the court at all times. Pulling Anthony Davis and Dwight away from the paint will open up more space and opportunities for drives and kick outs to shooters.
Seems crazy but that makes Kelly Olynyk an UPGRADE over Adebayo in my opinion. However, he is a downgrade on defense but I expect the Heat to play more 2-3 zone to make up for that and help him defend the paint.
I dont think the loss of Dragic's will be that impactful either. Expect Jimmy Butler to take on more of a facilitating role which he is more than capable of. Along with Nunn and Herro, they should be able to create plenty of opportunities for themselves and others. Also we could see slightly more minutes for Iguodala which will help slow down Lebron (a little).
From the coaching staff to the players, the Heat are a group that thrives when they're backs are against the wall. I expect their best performance of the series tonight.
We get a better stylistic matchup, 5 point adjustment in our favor and the more desperate team. Sign me up