586 Heat (+4) over Bucks
The Bucks have only lost 8 games this year but one of those losses came to the Heat back on 10/26 with the Heat being 11.5 point road underdogs without their best player in Jimmy Butler. Now for this matchup the Heat will be at home where they’re at the best ATS (covering 60% of the time) and Jimmy Butler will be playing. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS in back to back games but this is a scheduling disadvantage with it being their 3rd game in 4 days and off a surprisingly tough win against the Hornets and could be without their 2nd best player again in Middleton. The Bucks are one of the better defensive teams in the league but they do allow teams to shoot 36% from 3 on the road and the Heat have 5 guys that shoot 35% or better from 3 with 3 or more attempts so I’m expecting their shooters to knock down shots. The Bucks are 2-2 ATS in their last 4 road games vs playoff teams in the Eastern conference with a point differential of +2.2 while the Heat are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games at home vs playoff teams from the East with a point differential of +7.3 and their should be some added motivation for the Heat with the Bucks having the best record in the league and the best team in their conference coming into their building. Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Miami and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 matchups.