515 Mavs (-4) over Magic
Back on 11/6 these teams played and the Mavs were 7 point home favorites and only won by 1 now oddsmakers make the Mavs a 4 point road favorite indicating these teams are pretty much the same from their 1st matchup early on this season and I disagree with that. This is also a non-conference matchup and the Mavs have a big advantage in that area this year while covering 59% of their games vs the eastern conference with a +7.5 point differential compared to the Magic who’ve covered only 33% of their games vs the western conference with a point differential of -4.2. Another big factor working in favor of the Mavs are the Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games at home vs western conference playoff teams with a point differential of -14.2 and a key young player for the Magic (Jon Issac) is out for the season and he had a great game vs the Mavs in their first matchup and he was a player they could’ve put on Luka or KP and he could bother them defensively with his length, athleticism and defensive mindset. Out of the 32 games the Mavs have covered this year 62% of them came on the road while the Magic only covered 43% of the time when they’re at home this year. Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a SU win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog. Mavs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games in Orlando and 11-5 ATS overall in the last 16 matchups.