Or Nuggets +3.5 if you see it.
I think the Nuggets are the better team by one point. My power rankings make this game Celtics -1.5 because I only give Boston a 2.5 HCA based on their historical scoring margin splits.
Nuggets in Jokic era = 55% ATS on back to backs.
Denver is 58% ATS on back to backs since 2016 when Jokic became their best player, and 68% ATS as an away underdog on a b2b since 2016.
My theory: The Nuggets offense has manifold options that doesn't wear out any one player. In truth, all of their main guys could - and probably would like to - do a lot more on a game by game basis.
Additionally, whereas some players might have a major drop off in speed and power when winded - with Jokic you pretty much always get the same methodical guy. Fewer highs. Fewer lows. More pump fake elbow jumper one hand passes.
The Nuggets offense has been effective against the Celtics of late as well. They are 5-2 ATS against the Celtics since 2016, including 3-0 in TD Garden with ATS margin of +12.