NBA Free Premium Pick: 503 Utah Jazz @ 504 Indiana Pacers
Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Utah Jazz (-3.5) (Play up to -4)
Odds: -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Indiana's offense has been recently subpar and things will only get worse for them tonight, as their best player Oladipo is out of this game. I know that Oladipo's on/off numbers this season are quite similar (+4.3 net rating with him on the court and +3.5 net rating without him), but I believe the impact of his absence will be much bigger than this season's stats currently show. It's only necessary to check that in Indiana's last game against Atlanta where Oladipo only played 5 minutes, the Pacers' offense struggled in a run and gun environment.
By the way, Oladipo missed 7 games last season and Indiana lost all those games:
98-108 vs Boston
94-98 vs Dallas
107-119 @ Chicago
90-107 vs Minnesota
101-122 @ Milwaukee
102-111 vs Washington
93-119 @ Charlotte
On the other hand, Utah has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this season, especially on offense. However, Rubio and Mitchell are coming from two games in a row where they had decent efficiency numbers and Mitchell has a better than expected matchup tonight, as he'll face Evans instead of Oladipo. Utah's superior size near the basket will be decisive tonight and so, I believe Utah will pick up a comfortable win tonight. Utah won at Indiana last season by 104-84 with both rosters at 100% and I expect the Jazz to get another easy win tonight.