Thought I'd spend some time this morning trying to find value in these summer league game numbers so I'd love to hear any thoughts or insight you guys might have.
MIN (-1) vs TOR (162.5) - both teams playing just their 2nd game of SL. Wolves lost 1pt ball game, while Raptors gave up 90 and lost by 13. Staying way from this game, but I'd LEAN TOR +1
WAS (+1.5) vs SAS (166.5) - say what you will, but I think there's some value to one team having played 4 games and the other playing just one. The Spurs have played 4 games average 87.5ppg while allowing 86.5. The Wizards roster is not very good and the 59 points they scored to start their summer is the low of the Vegas SL, to date. I'd be shocked to see this team eclipse 75 points. Give up the 1.5 or 2 and ride the Spurs.
CHA (-2) vs MIA (172.5) - another matchup between a team that's got a few games under their belt (Heat) vs a team just coming off their first game and win (Hornets). Miami only allowed 76 ppg in 3 games in the Sacramento SL, but gave up 110 last night in their Vegas debut. Charlotte looked impressive in their debut and have a good roster. However, the injury to Malik Monk who scored 23 in the win over OKC may be out the rest of the summer with a broken finger. I wonder if playing with or without rest matters more or less than the number of games you've played as a group in summer league. This game will be a good barometer for that. LIKE Miami +2. Lean Under 172.5
POR (-5) vs ATL (173.5) - This is the game that appears to have the most value to me. Portland has only played one game and they beat a Utah team with some games under their belt 93-78. Atlanta might be the worst defensive team in summer league. They've given up 103 pts, twice, and 92 and 91 in their other two games. The Hawks average 86.3 ppg in their 4 games so far. Both teams played yesterday, so that gives me a bit of pause, but I expect no less than what I've seen from Atlanta. This game will go OVER 173.5 by about 6-8 points.
DAL (-2.5) vs MIL (166.5) - Both teams have only played a game in summer league, Dallas lost to the Suns 85-92 while Milwaukee beat Detroit 92-63. There's a chance that Luka Doncic makes his debut in this game, so the number may change. The total should be in the 171-173 range if he plays. Even if he does not play, I like the OVER 166.5. If he plays, enjoy the show and cash that ticket.
GSW (-1) vs HOU (172.5) - This is not a rematch of the Western Conference. A good prop bet would be how many players off these rosters will actually be on these respective teams should they actually meet in the conference semifinals or finals in 2019. The Warriors have played 4 games this summer and averaged 76 ppg and held opponents to 66 ppg. Houston scored 92-89 win over Indiana on Friday. I don't expect the Warriors defense to keep the Rockets into the 60s not with the roster and shooters they have on their team, but they won't get high 80s either. The young Rockets will relish the chance to give the Warriors their first loss of summer league. Best play is the UNDER 172.5. Lean towards Houston +1.
Again, I'd love to hear thoughts from those of you who are much sharper and experienced than I as sports wagering. Just trying to put my knowledge of basketball to good use. Thanks for your insights and thoughts.
-B