Orlando Magic +2 @ Atlanta Hawks -2 ::: O/U 212.5
Projected Score: Orlando 105.25 - Atlanta 107.25
Betting Trend: The spread opened at 1 and has moved to 2 already. 75% of spread bets are currently on Atlanta, no ML data yet and 50% of bets on the over.
Atlanta is 6-4 ATS their last 10 matchups with Orlando (3-7 at home)
Orlando is 3-7 ATS in their second game of a back-to-back (last 10 games)
Last matchup went Under, 2 before that went Over
Similar to the CHI/CHA game yesterday, this will be another matchup between two of the worse teams inside the Eastern conference. The 5-19 Hawks will be welcoming the 11-16 Magic. At first glance Atlanta looks to be pretty good with covering the spread. That is, until we see how bad they've been at home. At the same time, Orlando doesn't look much better when playing the tail end of a back-to-back. Top it off with some key injuries on both teams (including Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, John Collins, Mike Muscala, and Dewayne Dedmon) Here are some other quick details about each team..
Atlanta
19th in pace at home (9th on the road)
17th ranked home offense this season (24th on the road)
30th ranked home defense this season (12th on the road)
Orlando
6th in pace on the road (8th at home)
8th ranked road offense this season (25th at home)
25th ranked road defense this season (19th at home)
A few quick notes... Orlando's pace doesn't really change much whether playing at home or on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta actually goes down quite a bit in pace compared to their road game averages. Both teams take a step-up in their offense, although Orlando appears to have the bigger jump. It's opposite with defense as both teams are significantly worse in their position tonight. According to averages, these will be two bottom-5 defenses playing tonight. So far, this is shaping up to be a high scoring game from what I see..
In 11 Atlanta Home Games This Season
-They've won 2
-Averaging 103.9 PPG (8th fewest)
-Allowing Average 109.5 PPG (5th most)
-Has lost 3 in a row
-Scored 100+ in all but 3 (against BKN/TOR/BOS)
-Has covered the spread in both wins
-Crossed 212.5 mark 6 times
-They are 4-6 ATS last 10 games
In 15 Orlando Away Games This Season
-They've won 5
-Averaging 108.9 PPG (6th most)
-Allowing Average 112.0 PPG (2nd most)
-Has won 1 in their last 9 (against NYK)
-Scored 100+ in all but 2 (against CHA/POT)
-Has covered the spread 5 times (their wins)
-Crossed 212.5 mark 9 times
-They are 4-5-1 ATS last 10 games
In 5 Orlando Back-to-Back's This Season
-All Were Away
-Average 108.2 PPG
-Allowed Average 110.2 PPG
-Scored 100+ in all but 1 (against Charlotte)
-Lost the last 3 in a row
With the records these two teams have I guess it's no surprise to see just how bad they are. The spread is going to be hard to trust in this game and that's exactly why it's so close. The injuries to Atlanta likely won't effect them as much as the injuries to Orlando. Still, both teams stand a decent chance of losing tonight and it's pretty much going to be a coin toss. When putting money on the line I think I'll actually PASS on the spread tonight and look at the totals instead.
Orlando was the last team the Hawks played actually (in Orlando) and they lost that one in overtime. That gives them more reason for wanting to come back and win tonight! The Hawks are averaging 103.9 PPG against a team that is allowing 112. Last time they played (in Orlando) the Hawks put up 106 and that was in overtime. I personally think that number seams a little low and the reason for it could be that Atlanta plays worse offense on the road as opposed to at home. To go along with that, Orlando actually plays slightly better defense there as well. Considering the Atlanta offense should be a little better tonight going against a team that just lost Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, plus the drop in Orlando's defense compared to their previous game - I think the Hawks should be able to get AT LEAST similar number (106-112ish) without going into overtime tonight. Although, with such a close spread another overtime game is certainly not out question in the eyes of Vegas! Let's look at Orlando..
Orlando is averaging just about the same number of points whether they're playing at the end of a back-to-back or not (108). This Atlanta Hawks team currently allows 109.5 and Vegas actually has them projected a little under both at just 107.25. Last time they played (in Orlando) the Magic put up 110 in overtime. That happened to be the game Fournier got injured in and he still finished as the leading points scorer on the day with 27 points. Yes, losing Gordon and Fournier might hurt this team a bit today. Still, the Hawks are top-15 in defense at home (where they played last time). This team drops to DEAD LAST at home and that makes me think whomever fills in should probably do just fine. Orlando is also 25th in offense at home (where they played last time) and this ranking shoots all the way up to 8th when on the road. If you take a little off for the loss of 2 studs it's still going to be quite a bit better than last time. This is another team I see crossing their projected team total tonight.
Tonight you've got two of the worse defenses going at it. A few injuries shouldn't make a big impact with how bad each of these defenses are. Each team has crossed the total here in over half their home/away games and I believe that continues tonight and I like the Over 212.5 in this game.