Chicago Bulls +9 @ Charlotte Hornets -9 ::: O/U 203.5
Projected Score: Chicago 97 - Charlotte 106.5
Betting Trend: The spread opened at 11 and has since moved to 9. 51% of spread bets are currently on Charlotte with no data on the ML and 82% of totals bets on the over.
Charlotte is 6-4 ATS their previous 10 matchups with the Bulls (5-2 as an "at home" favorite)
Only 1 game has crossed 200pts in Charlotte over their last 10
This game features a conference matchup between the horrible 3-20 Bulls and the mediocre 9-14 Hornets. Both of these teams rank bottom 3 in the conference and are coming off a loss. They're also each playing the beginning of a back-to-back, so if this one gets outta control starters could see the bench towards the end. Looking at the record above is appears the Hornets are pretty good at covering in the past, especially as an at home favorite. What's more interesting is that only 1 game played in Charlotte (back in 2016) over their last 10 has crossed the 200pt mark. However, when these two played back on November 17th (in Chicago) they totaled a crazy 243 points! Let's look at more data..
Charlotte
9th in pace at home (12th on the road)
18th ranked home offense (21st on the road)
8th ranked home defense (19th on the road)
7-3 ATS their last 10 home games as a favorite
Chicago
18th in pace on the road (25th at home)
28th ranked road offense (30th at home)
29th ranked road defense (17th at home)
4-6 ATS their last 10 road games as an underdog
About the only two things these teams have in common would be that they are both going to play at a slightly faster pace in this game. That's good for scoring and one sign this game could hit the over. We knew the Bulls were bad, but this team at least has a little defense at home. They have virtually none on the road with no offense to go with it! Charlotte looks to have an upper hand at covering the spread and should play better offense and defense in this game. It's starting to make 203.5 seam like a low number. I'm also wondering if Charlotte can actually cover a 9.5 point spread which could go up before tip off. The biggest difference I see above is Chicago taking a big hit on defense and Charlotte getting much stronger on defense. Let's dig in deeper..
In 12 Charlotte Home Games This Season
-They've won 8
-Averaging 107.6 PPG (mid-pack)
-Allowing an average of 104.7 PPG (mid-pack)
-Has lost 2 of their last 6
-Has cleared 100pts in 9 games
-Has won by more than the spread 5 times
-Crossed the 203.5 total 5 times (2 of their last 3)
In 13 Chicago Away Games This Season
-They've lost all but 1
-Averaging 98.0 PPG (5th fewest)
-Allowing an average of 110.6 PPG (4th most)
-Has lost the last 9 in a row
-Has cleared 100pts in 6 games
-Has won or lost by less than the spread 8 times
-Crossed the 203.5 total 7 times (2 of their last 3)
The data above does a pretty good job of lining up with where these teams stand in terms of their record. Chicago has poor offense/defense and doesn't usually score more than 100 points per game while they allow other teams to score over 110. They aren't very good at winning games, but are a little better than average at covering such a large spread. As for Charlotte - they're better than average at home and rank about mid-pack in terms of points scored/allowed. They've had streaks of loses this year which is why they're below .500. With that in mind, I'll pass on the spread in this game. It's a large amount to cover and while it appears Charlotte should (and certainly "could") do it, the Bulls only lost by 3 last time and have only lost 5/13 on the road by 10 or more. I'll pass on the spread and look into the totals here instead..
After looking at this data and the Vegas projections my best bet of the day is going to be a prop in this one. I love it when Vegas gets their projections way off and the Hornets look to be one of those today. Vegas has a projected team total for Charlotte at just 106.5, which is WAY under value. Above we can see this team normally averages 107.6 (yes, MORE than the projection) as it is. Remember, this game will be an uptick in pace for both teams. That along with the fact they're playing a second-to-last ranked defense that allows an average of 110.6...AND they're playing at home where the Hornets average about 6 more points compared to when playing on the road! Vegas got this team total completely wrong as Charlotte is practically guaranteed to cross the 106.5 margin. Take their 107.6 average - add a little for faster pace - plus a tad more (possibly quite more than just a "tad") for bad defense and this team could end up scoring around (or above) the 123 they did against them back in Chicago. Those wanting the safest bet in this game should consider a prop bet Hornets Team Total Over 106.5 or similar. Considering they average 107.6 and Chicago allows 110 - I'd feel comfortable taking the over here even up to 108 or 109.. Now that we can feel confident Charlotte should go over their projection, let's look at Chicago.
Chicago's poor offense and streaky scoring is going to make their team total a bit riskier to play and tougher to figure out. Thankfully, we can figure the Hornets should have a floor of about 108-110 points. With that data we know all we need to figure out is if we think Chicago can put up 95 points or more. If so, then the over should be a solid bet here..
Vegas currently has Chicago projected for 97 points which is more than we need, and just below what they are averaging. But, can they hit it? The good thing is that their offense is actually ranked slightly higher on the road than it is at home where they put up 120 last time. The bad thing is that Charlotte plays a much better defense at home compared to on the road. The fewest amount of points they've given up at home this year was 87 vs the Clippers in mid-November. Of the 4 teams they've played at home this year who rank in the bottom-20 in terms of offense on the road, only 1 has his 95 points or more. That was San Antonio. All 3 others were held off: Atlanta 91, Denver 93, Clippers 87. They were even able to recently hold Orlando to just 94. SA is ranked #27 (right above Chicago) in road offense and they were able to score 106. Charlotte does allow an average of 104.7 and this game is going to be a slight uptick in pace. Almost everything points to Chicago getting above 95 here between what they average, what Charlotte gives up on average, and what Vegas has them projected at. However, that last stat is kind of a killer. Charlotte tends to keep poor offenses limited when playing at home. I think it's safe to assume Chicago has a floor of about 87 points with a ceiling of about 106. That's kind of a big gap and overall it makes the game totals bet here more risky. Anything that Charlotte can get over 110 would help trim down what the Bulls would need to cover on their end. With that in mind, I would lean towards Over 203.5 in this game. My prop pick listed above is definitely the safer play here, but I also see there being a pretty good chance it goes over as well. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL today!