Toronto Raptors -5.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 ::: O/U 202.5
Projected Score: Toronto 104 - Memphis 98.5
Betting Trend: The spread opened at 5 and has already moved to 6. 91% of spread bets are currently on Toronto, 50% on ML bets are currently on Toronto and 75% of totals bets are currently on the over.
Memphis is 8-11-1 ATS their last 20 matchups with Toronto (5-4-1 last ten @ home)
Last game total was a push with 2 unders before that.
With Toronto (15-7 record this year) being 17th in pace on the road and Memphis (8-16 record this year) being 26th in pace at home we can expect this will be a mid-slow pace game. Toronto is actually ranked 8th in pace when at home so you can see they play significantly slower when away. The only main injury concern in this game is Mike Conley who's been out for the last 7 games. Memphis started off 4-0 at home this season and currently holds a 1-6 record since losing him. I think when a slow pace team (without many studs) loses one good player it makes a pretty big difference. Their record seams to confirm that. Aside from that, Toronto is off until Sunday so their starters should play regular minutes while Memphis is starting a back-to-back. If things start getting bad Memphis could rest their starters towards the end. Here is some more data..
Toronto
4th in offense on the road (2nd at home)
9th in defense on the road (9th at home)
6-4 ATS their last 10 road games
Memphis
27th in offense at home (11th on the road)
5th in defense at home (24th on the road)
2-8 ATS their last 10 home games
I had to double check because I couldn't really believe it at first. It's actually true that this Grizzlies team is 5th in defense at home and 24th on the road. However, they've moved back to 12th at home since losing Conley. A pretty big difference there, but we can expect fairly solid D from them tonight. At the same time, they rank 11th in offense on the road and drop all the way to 27th when at home (last since losing Conley). That's making me think mediocre defense/really bad offense coming from the Grizzlies tonight. We can also see Memphis has been horrible at covering the spread over these past 10 games (7 of those are without Conley). Toronto however, appears to be about the same in both offense and defense whether at home or on the road. They're a little better than .500 when it comes to covering the spread as well. Here is some more team data..
In 12 Toronto Road Games This Season
-They've lost 6
-Averaging 107.8 PPG (9th most)
-Allowing an average of 103.4 PPG (8th fewest)
-Has won 1 game after losing 2 in a row
-Has cleared 100pts in 9 games
-Has won by more than the spread 6 times (every win)
-Crossed the 202.5 total 7 times (4 of their last 5)
In 13 Memphis Home Games This Season
-They've lost 8
-Averaging 96.5 PPG (2nd fewest)
-Allowing an average of 98.3 PPG (4th fewest)
-Has won 1 game (against MIN) after losing 8 in a row
-Hasn't cleared 100pts in 6 games
-Have won or lost by less than the spread a total of 9 times
-Crossed the 202.5 total 3 times (against GS, CHA, IND)
In 7 Memphis Home Games Without Conley
-They only won 1 (their last)
-Averaging 92 PPG
-Allowing 100 PPG
-Has cleared 100pts in 1 game
If I were going to bet the spread in this game then I'd only be interested in taking the underdog. But, looking at all of the data above it's pretty clear there is NO WAY I will be taking the Grizzlies tonight. I don't even think I'd want them at +10! Toronto has Memphis beat everywhere here and could probably cover, but this number is only going to go up before tip off and I prefer not to bet against the bounce. So, I'll Pass on the spread here and instead look at the juicy totals which I think will be a safer bet as it is anyways..
I've said it before and I'll say it again.. To say Memphis has been struggling without Conley would be an understatement. They're averaging 92 PPG (4.5 less than with him), allowing just about 2 more points against, and are ranked dead last in home offense since losing him. Not only that, the team has managed to win 1 measly game in that time and that was against Minnesota. We know they've only cleared 100 points in 1 game since losing him and that was against Indianapolis back on November 15th. It's safe to say they won't hit 100 tonight and Vegas agrees having them pinned in at a projected score of 98.5. Still - That's only 1.5 points away from 100 and to me it seams that Vegas is being pretty generous towards Memphis today. Perhaps a little too generous. Toronto is allowing an average of 103.4 PPG and considering this will be a big step backwards in pace for them, we can figure that number will go down. Along with that, Toronto's defense is actually ranked #3 in road defense over the past 3 road games. Their defense has been extremely well lately and we can probably expect the number to drop more because of that. Considering Memphis hasn't even crossed 95 points in a game since that win against Indy, I doubt their bottom-ranked offense will even hit 95 tonight against this hot Toronto D. A slight uptick in pace for their offense doesn't mean much as even against a faster team like Brooklyn they only scored 88. They put up 79 on the board when playing the Spurs at home on December 1st and my prediction is they're somewhere around that number tonight (79-85ish). SA and TOR have similar defensive ranks lately. The fact this team is also starting a back-to-back gives some potential they let it go and focus on Saturday if things start to get bad. Let's look at Toronto..
Toronto is on a 3 game win streak (all at home) and have put up 120+ in each. Of course, these were against 3 of the faster pace teams in the league (PHO/IND/CHA). Lately Toronto has all 3 of those teams beat on defense. Above we also saw that Toronto plays a much faster game at home compared to on the road. They're averaging 107.8 PPG which is in the top-10, but this drop in pace for their offense (plus a better-than average Memphis defense) is going to keep them from hitting 107.8 tonight. Vegas agrees and has their team total right around 104. Similar to Memphis, they're being generous here and only dropping 3 points for a team that's playing on the road, against a team allowing the 4th fewest points at home (98.3) and held SA to only 95, Brooklyn to 98, Portland to 100, and most importantly, the Rockets to just 105? Vegas thinks this Toronto team can put up 1 point less than the Rockets here? Sounds like more overvaluing to me! I expect somewhere between 95-100 with a ceiling of what Vegas has them projected at (104)..
With all of that in mind, I think one of the safest plays is to take Under 202.5 here. Public bets are poring in on the over right now so there is a chance this goes up and you can get even better value. At the same time, it is a Grizzlies game which people know are bound to be slow. So, there's also a chance it could shift the other way. I also see a great prop bet opportunity by taking Memphis Team Total Under 98.5 Or Similar. I'd feel comfortable taking that all the way down to 96.. Heck, you could even consider taking the team total under for Toronto as well since it's not likely they hit 104. There would be the more risk in that bet as they've got the better offense and could always score a little more. BOL and feel free to share your thoughts!