Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 ::: O/U 221
Projected Score: Los Angeles 106.75 - Philadelphia 114.25
Betting Trend: The spread opened at 7.5 and has since moved to 8. 67% of spread bets are currently on Philadelphia, 68% of ML bets are on Philly and 54% of totals bets are currently on the under.
Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS over their previous 10 matchups with LA (6-4 as an "at home" favorite)
Their last 2 home matchups have gone under totaling less than 195 in each
Much like the Pelicans game yesterday - this game should be a fun one to watch! The 8-15 Lakers are 2nd in pace on the road while the 13-10 76ers are 5th in pace at home. Two fast teams that are each coming off a loss (and will want to bounce back) would sound like a potentially high scoring game. But, can it reach the 221 mark? Lonzo Ball and T.J. McConnell are both expected to play and there are no other real injury concerns in this game.
Both teams have had a few days off and neither plays again till Saturday. This is good news when thinking about guys like Embiid who can be risky around back to backs. I don't see why the studs wouldn't play their usual number of minutes tonight. Looking at the record above it appears the 76ers are 50% at covering the spread over the last ten, but slightly better when playing at home as a favorite. What I find more surprising is that both of their previous games (in Brooklyn) have gone for less than 195 points. Since both teams have changed a bit this year that might be something worth looking further into. Here is some additional data..
Los Angeles
25th ranked road offense this season
10th ranked road defense this season
3-7 ATS over their past 10 away games
Philadelphia
18th ranked home offense this season
13th ranked home defense this season
7-3 ATS over their past 10 home games
Both are fairly solid on defense while less than average on offense. That's one sign they might not be able to reach 221. Aside from that and the fact that lately Philly has been better at covering the spread - I don't really see much else here that stands out. Digging deeper..
In 10 Los Angeles Road Games This Season
-They've lost 8
-Given up an average of 109.6 PPG (116 the last 3)
-Scored 100+ in 6
-Averaging 102.1 PPG
-Have lost 3 in a row (after winning 1)
-Have won or lost by less than the spread 4 times
-Crossed the 221 mark 3 times
In 12 Philadelphia Home Games This Season
-They've lost 5
-Given up an average of 106 PPG (111 the last 5)
-Scored 100+ in all but 2
-Averaging 109 PPG
-Lost their last 1 after winning 2 in a row
-Have won by 7.5 or more 5 times
-Crossed the 221 mark 5 times
Wow - LA is horrible on the road! This team has only managed to win 2 road games all season and BOTH were against Phoenix, lol. Granted they've played some tougher teams including Boston, Utah and Portland. Still - they just lost to Denver (who had two of their best guys out), the Clippers without Beverly and Sacramento. We can also see they've lost the last three in a row, only won (or lost by less than 8) 40% of the time, and have only combined for more than 221 points 30% of the time. This is looking more like a Philly win to me, but can they do it by 8 or more? Philadelphia has done that less than 50% of the time at home this season. BUT, if you take away the two Phoenix wins for Los Angeles they have now lost games by LESS than 8 points only 25% of the time - that's pretty darn bad. If we look at some player matchups then we see Lopez is going to have his hands full with Embiid and his 2.62 DRPM (7th among Centers), Ingram will have his hands full with Covingtons and his 2.66 DRPM (1st among SF), Ball will have his hands full with Simmons and his 2.39 DRPM (1st among PG). Things don't get much easier at PG with McConnell back and his 0.24 DRPM (16th among PG). As you can see - the Lakers (who are already bad enough on the road) won't have a much easier go of it tonight. With all of that in mind I like Philadelphia -7.5 for the spread in this game. As of right now heavy betting is going that way and it could cause the number to rise. Normally I don't like going with the public, but I like them in this one..
If you don't feel like going with the spread then there is also an interesting prop bet here.. Vegas has LA and they're 25th rank road offense projected for 106.75 points. If we look above we can see that's higher than what they average in a road game (102.1). Considering they'll be playing a slightly better than average defense and have only crossed the 103 mark 1 time in their last 7 games (against the Clippers and their 26th ranked home defense), I highly doubt they'll be able to do it tonight. If this game becomes a blowout it will most likely be Philly ahead, so I would stay away from a Philly team total and instead target a Lakers Team Total Under 106.5 Or Similar.