Wednesday we cashed the San Antonio/Dallas under ticket with a nail biter at the end there. Unders played before 3:00 EST improve to 12-3 on the year, and I'm not sure how the bookmakers will ever catch on, if they do. Looked like overtime was well on the way as we've seen from the Stars once before, but San Antonio stays true to form and loses a couple of key free throws late in the 4th...
Some thoughts on tonight's big slate:
Phoenix @ Seattle: I still refuse to play Mercury games on a side after last weekend's debacle, but the total is currently sitting at 160 and I think it's a bit too low. Mercury can't possibly play as bad as they did last game (32.8% FG), and even if they do Seattle is strong to the over. Danielle Robinson is probable for the game, meaning that we might get the defense and defensive rebounds that have been missing from Phoenix (4-5 per game). Seattle also 3-0 in this series to the over. Robinson isn't worth the 3-4 point shift in the total in the last 24 hrs.
Dallas @ San Antonio: Dallas is a short favorite on the road after Glory Johnson came back to seal the Dallas win late after San Antonio was leading for most of the game. San Antonio still winless on the year, and horrible ATS at home (1-4). Dallas shoots better on road as well. I think San Antonio goes 0-13, and with Dallas as a short favorite I might play them on ML. Over is nice here as well - as we get some value because of the under in the AM game play in Dallas on Wednesday
Washington @ Minnesota: This game fits the script for an over: ESPN2, Friday night primetime. Both teams are near even at the top in the league when it comes to assist/turnover ratio: 1.6 (Minnesota) and 1.47 (Washington). Both are most efficient in league when it comes to offensive rebounding (53%). Both are top 5 in true shooting percentage. Only downfall for the over is that both are around 75-76 PPG when it comes to offensive pace and efficiency.
There's a big slate for Friday afternoon but I will be away most of the afternoon into the evening. I will post the plays as the markets adjust throughout the morning. In the meantime, let's get some good discussion going here....
Current Totals Trend based on game time:
Games played after 6:00p EST: 27-14 to the OVER
Games played before 3:00 EST: 12-3 to the UNDER
Current SU/ATS:
Favorites overall SU: 52-14
Home favorites SU: 34-9
Away favorites SU: 18-5
Home favorites ATS: 20-21-2
Away Favorites ATS: 16-7
Today's Games:
7:30 pm EST: Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream: Total 164.5, ATL -6.5
7:30 pm EST: Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty: Total 163.5, NY -3.5
8:00 pm EST: Washington Mystics @ Minnesota Lynx: Total 163.5, MIN -8.5
8:00 pm EST: Dallas Wings @ San Antonio Stars: Total 163.5, DAL -2.5
10:00 pm EST: Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm: Total 160, SEA -4