Thursday, May 1

Maple Leafs plus $1.05 (Circa) at Senators

Betting the Maple Leafs to advance in the Stanley Cup hasn't been the brightest thing to do. Toronto has failed to accomplish that in 13 of its last 14 playoff series.

The Maple Leafs could choke away another series if they don't close out Ottawa here. The Maple Leafs won the first three games, but have lost two in a row after getting blanked at home, 4-0, two days ago.

A seventh game, if needed, would be played in Toronto on Saturday. I wouldn't trust the Maple Leafs in that game given their history. Funny, though, because I trust them in this spot where they are road underdogs.

The Senators scored two empty-netters and had a short-handed goal in their, 4-0, victory on Tuesday. Maple Leafs' first-year coach Craig Berube ripped into his top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies following the game.

It's my belief Berube got through to those stars and his team. I don't feel it's a leap of faith to believe the Maple Leafs will come out fired up after that embarrassing home loss and play much better. They are the superior team. So history be damned. Toronto takes care of business here.

I am 6-2 on my Stanley Cup plays with three plus-price winners. I have an NHL Thursday totals play going in addition to this free selection. I am 12-5 on my last 17 NBA plays and have a Triple Star NBA play also going today. You can find my plays, packages and records here: https://pregame.com/pros/stephen-nover. 

Best of luck and no bad beats!