TAMPA -215

According to a 2006-2013 study, no team's home ice is more valuable than Tampa's. Tampa's home ice is roughly worth 35% more than the average team. This may be MORE pronounced later in the season if you believe the psychological "vacation effect" of being in 70 degree weather in December. 

Despite playing the most difficult schedule in the NHL, the Lightening are 3rd in all-strength goal differential. STL is 26th.

Over the last 10 games, Tampa is #1 in 5v5 goals and #1 in power play goals. 

Penguins +140

The Preds have scored the fewest goals this season. Whether recent or full-season, the Preds have massively underperformed their expected offensive metrics. Maybe they're just bad. Over the last 10 games, their power play 1.76 gpg/60 would be worse than every other 5v5 offense!!! (small sample but illustrates that no improvement in sight).

In the last 10 games, the Penguins have played a more difficult scheudle than Preds but have a better goal differential and Xdifferential. I want to fade the league's offense with an ascending Penguins team.

LAST 10 Offense 5v5 SVA
- PIT 3.6 gpg (6th), 6th expected
- NASH 1.76 gpg (31st), 11th expected

LAST 10 Defense 5v5 SVA
- PIT 3.1 gpg (26th), 12th expected
- NASH 1.74 gpg (4th), 21st expected