PHILLY -105 Fanduel

In the last 10 games 5v5, the Flyers have been much better than their record suggests. The Flyers are 3rd in expected goals per game and 2nd in expected goals allowed per game. Detroit is 21st and 26th respectively. The season-long metrics tell a similar story. Philly's expected offense AND defense rankings are better than Detroit's. Detroit has played the 2nd softest schedule this year and still cant out-perform Philly's raw 5v5 stats. GROSS.

Detroit has been buoyed by their power play. They're 8th in PP%. However their expected power play suggests they've been lucky. Their expected Power Play offense is 20th in the last 10 games.

I was on Philly when they beat Detroit 4-1 on DEC 12th. Practically copy pasted handicap.

Offense 5v5 SVA
- PHI 2.3 gpg (23rd), 22nd expected
- DET 1.85 gpg (31st), DEAD LAST expected

Defense 5v5 SVA
- PHI 2.75 gpg (26th), 16th expected
- DET 2.06 gpg (9th), 21st expected | 3rd worst in Fenwick against