Thanks to Mike & TLF for stopping by. BOL today.
Over the L25 games, FLA ranks higher than STL in 12/15 inputs. FLA ranks in the top half in 10/15 inputs while STL does in just 3/15. STL ranks in the bottom third in 11/15 inputs while FLA does in just 3/15. FLA avg rank across all inputs is 16th while STL is 22nd. Over the L25 games, I have FLA ranked 11 spots higher (17v28). If you look at L25 rankings vs season rankings, FLA is -11 and STL is -1. Based on season long data, FLA power ranking is 5.63% higher but when you look at L25 data, it's 3.65%. It's true that FLA's numbers have dropped off from early in the season but they are showing signs of improvement as I have them ranked #11 over the L10 games. While I do have 25c of value on FLA, much of this play is a fade of STL. The Blues have conceded 4 or more goals in 6 straight and 8 of their L10. Over the L25 (5v5/SVA), STL ranks 28th in GA. Over the same time, FLA ranks 5th in xGF. Since the beginning of last season, STL is 4-16 as a home dog. The Blues needed OT to beat ARI 6-5 on Saturday as -210 favorites. They had lost 5 straight before that, all by 2+ goals and they were favored in 3 of those 5. FLA has won 4 of 5 including wins over Tampa, Boston and in Minnesota last night. A step down in competition tonight and FLA has been outstanding vs teams with a WP<50, winning 8 straight since 12/1 by a combined 24 goals. All 8 wins were in regulation. As an away favorite vs teams with a WP<50, FLA is 47-18 (72.3%) over the L5+ seasons for a +16.2% ROI. That makes them the most profitable team in the league in this spot. Neither one of these goalies going tonight give you the warm fuzzies but FLA does have the edge with Knight ranking 65th (-1.4) in GSAE while Binnington ranks 83rd (-10.5). The 4max scoring system really likes FLA tonight and so do I.
Florida (-130)
