Thanks to RP, 22, Mike & Summer for stopping by. BOL today.
Lots to like about this UNDER tonight. First off, the 4max scoring system I use which caps scoring at 4 goals to eliminate outliers and just looks at the L5 games, favors the U in this matchup at 5.2.
Secondly, we have two really good goalies going tonight with Oettinger ranking 7th (+16.2) in GSAE and Gustavsson ranking 12th (+11.3). Over the L25 games, looking at 5v5 SVA data, DAL ranks 26th in GF and MIN ranks 27th. Conversely, DAL ranks 1st in GA and MIN ranks 2nd.
When facing teams with a winning record, like MIN, DAL has seen 9 straight games stay U and those games have avg 4.4 goals. When DAL is priced higher than -125 and the total is 5.5, they've seen the U go 11-3 dating back to Jan. of last year and those games have avg 4.8 goals. In 2023, the U is 12-2 in DAL games and they've avg 5.0 goals.
In short, we have two of the weaker 5v5 offensive teams and two of the best 5v5 defensive teams, two solid goalies and a situation that favors a low-scoring game. That looks like a formula for an UNDER tonight.
Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 6 (-125)