I think we can make a pretty good case for the UNDER in this matchup. Right off the top, we have two solid goalies facing off. Samsonov (13th/+10.9) and Kuemper (20th/+5.7) both rank in the T20 in GSAE. Samsonov is coming off a rough outing Friday vs OTT where he conceded 6 goals. I expect he'll bounce back with a solid effort tonight vs his old team as he's been really good off a loss this season, conceding an avg of 2.0 goals after a loss. Before giving up 6 Friday night, Samsonov had conceded 3 or less in 7 straight. Kuemper last started Thursday night and he's been really good this season on 2+ days rest, conceding an avg of 2.19 goals. When the Caps have played teams with a WP>55 (TOR=60%) this season, the u6.5 is 12-5 and those games have averaged 5.6 goals. When the Maple Leafs have played teams with a WP>50 (WSH=51%) this season, the u6.5 is 14-5 and those games have averaged 5.3 goals. If both teams score 3 this afternoon, so be it, but this looks like a 3-2 game to me, maybe 4-2 with an empty netter, hence the 6.5 play. Lastly, the 4max scoring system I use which caps scoring at 4 goals to eliminate outliers and looks at just the L5 games, favors the UNDER in this matchup.