TDOTPRO said:

Any thoughts on total in Edmonton Dennis ?

I'm not real hot on playing 7s. Would've been playable yesterday but the 6.5 was too high for me this morning. Looks like a 4-3 EDM win to me. Books are definitely onto something with most games at 6 or 6.5 so far this season.

I don't agree with this line movement at all but I'm happy to take advantage of it. I don't make rankings until everyone has played 10 games but I would've made this ML -150 at the end of last season. STL ranked higher in 10 of 15 inputs last season. STL had the 4th best road W% last season and they were the 3rd most profitable road team. STL won 13 of their final 17 regular season road games last season. STL has won 10 straight games vs. teams with a losing record. SEA has already lost at home to two good teams by a combined score of 10-3 and this should come as no surprise as they were the 2nd worst team by W% last season vs. teams with a W%>60. SEA has now lost 10 of their L11 vs. teams with a W%>60. Lastly, STL won all 3 meetings last season by a combined score of 11-2. ETA: Road faves have historically been a good bet in the NHL. In database history, road faves are 3353-2225 (60.1%) for ~246 units of profit. Short faves are no different. Since 2010, road faves of less than -150 are 1735-1232 (58.5%) for ~203 units of profit and a +5.5% ROI.

St. Louis (-130)

Thanks to AWR, Mike & TB for stopping by. BOL this evening.

I've never been a big PL player but I believe we have a good one here. Simply put, the Sharks are a bad hockey team. They finished last season 26th in my rankings. All of the models I follow have SJ as a bottom 1/3rd team and most have them as a bottom 5 team. The Sharks are one of my top 5 fades this season along with PHI, MTL, CHI & ARI. When matched up against the better teams, SJ is one of the worst in the league. Over the L3 seasons, they have the 3rd worst W% vs. teams with a W%>60 at 16-41 (28.1%) and they were the most profitable to play against at +14.35 units. The Sharks have lost 13 of their L14 vs. teams with a W%>60. They're up against it tonight as the Rangers are one of the best teams in the league when taking on bad teams. Over the L3 seasons, NY has the best W% vs. teams with a W%<40 at 38-9 (80.9%) and they've been the 2nd most profitable team with +23.1 units. 26 of those 38 wins were by 2+ goals. The Rangers three wins this season have all been by 2+ and three of the Sharks five losses have been by 3+. Lastly, it's been nearly five years to the day since the Sharks beat the Rangers with NY taking the L7 meetings. ETA: This is a big goalie mismatch as the goalie rankings I use have this as a 1v32 matchup, assuming Igor starts.

New York Rangers -1.5 (-115)