I went 1-2 on my last NHL post, putting my record at 9-12 for shared hockey picks this season. Going with a total in the early game this afternoon so feel free to share your thoughts. BOL this weekend everyone!!
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New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
My Pick: New York Rangers/New Jersey Devils Over 6.5 (+100) - L
This will be the second time this year that these two face off in New Jersey. The Rangers will be playing the tail end of a back-to-back which is also their second of a two game road set. Meanwhile, the Devils will be playing their first of a two game home set. These two are now 10-0-1 Over/Under their last eleven games inside Prudential Center, and here's why I'm liking the over again this afternoon..
First, let's take a New Jersey. Sure, they might be 1-4 Over/Under the last five they've played at home. However, three of those unders came against below .500 teams. In fact, on home ice the Devils are now 8-2 Over/Under versus above .500 teams this season. They're also 2-1 Over/Under at home versus both Metropolitan teams and when playing their first home game after one on the road. While it's true that New Jersey isn't really a "super high" scoring team, they have reached the 4 goal mark in three of their last four games now and rank 18th in the league at GF/G on home ice which is close to league average and much better than the 29th they rank when on the road. Their power play scoring could be improved (they rank bottom-9 in the league for power play goals), but with the Rangers ranking 4th for Penalty Minutes on the road they should get at least a couple opportunities this afternoon. Alexandar Georgiev will be in the crease for New York and has had his struggles lately, allowed at least 5 GA in each of his last three outings. Georgiev is now 1-0 Over/Under when playing the tail end of a back-to-back, 1-0 Over/Under in his other matchup against the Devils this year, and 3-2 Over/Under on the road overall. In road games Georgiev has now allowed 5, 5, 1, 4, and 1 goals against..
Next, let's take a look at New York. Not only will this be the tail end of a back-to-back for them, it will also be their third game in the last four days. They sit 1-1 Over/Under in that spot on the season, but 1-0 Over/Under with Georgiev between the pipes. Although the team is 5-5 Over/Under through all road games this season, that changes to 5-3 Over/Under when they've been an underdog. As I mentioned above, this will be their second road game now and the team is also 3-0 Over/Under when in that situation this year. Similar to New Jersey, the Rangers are also 2-1 Over/Under when playing Metropolitan teams on the road and although they're 1-2 Over/Under against below .500 teams - both Unders came against the Senators and the Over came against the same team they're playing this afternoon. Unlike the Devils, New York is much more consistent at scoring no matter where they play. They rank 12th in the league at GF/G outside of Madison Square Garden which is pretty close to the 10th they rank when on home ice. New Jersey sits 8th in the league for Penalty Minutes at home which means the Rangers should get a few power play opportunities this afternoon as well. But, they rank a much healthier 7th in the league at Power Play goals. Mackenzie Blackwood hasn't been confirmed yet, but will most likely get the nod here. The Devils are not in a back-to-back situation today and their backup (Louis Domingue) only has three appearances this year and the only two at home came against .500 or below Detroit and Minnesota teams. Blackwood has also had his struggles lately, allowing at least 4 GA in each of his last three outings. He's 6-3 Over/Under at home and is also 1-0 Over/Under in the same home game which he also played in versus the Rangers earlier in the season..
With it being the Rangers and Devils playing at noon (my time) and one of these teams playing yesterday, I could certainly see the public taking the Under here. However, with a combination of the recent history these two have in New Jersey plus the struggles each of these two goalies has had lately, I'm going with the Over.