Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres
My Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning/Buffalo Sabres Over 6.5 (-111) - L
This game will be played in Sweden at Ericsson Globe Arena as part of the NHL Global Series. Of the 10 previous matchups played there, games are exactly 5-5 Over/Under overall and 2-0 Over/Under when played in November. In that span, the first game of the series is 3-2 Over/Under compared to 2-3 Over/Under in the second game which will be played on Saturday.
Linus Ullmark has been confirmed at goalie for Buffalo and is 4-2 Over/Under this season. He's allowed at least 3 goals-against in four of his five road appearances and the only game he gave up less in was a shutout versus Detroit. He'll be facing a Tampa Bay team that's now 6-3 Over/Under on the road this year and 1-1 Over/Under in the first game of back-to-backs (1-0 versus teams above .500). The Lightning have put up at least 3 goals in six of those nine road games and are coming off a few days rest for this matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been confirmed at goalie for Tampa Bay and is 6-3 Over/Under this season. He's allowed at least 3 goals-against in five of his six road appearances and is facing a Buffalo team that's now 3-0 Over/Under the first game of back-to-backs and 5-3 Over/Under on the road this season. For what it's worth, opposing teams have also scored at least 3 goals in eight of Tampa Bay's nine on the road. The Sabres will also be entering this game after a couple days rest.
Buffalo hasn't been scoring a ton of goals lately, but Vasilevskiy has had his struggles this year and Tampa Bay does rank league-average for Penalty Minutes with Buffalo sitting 3rd in the league for power play goals. Meanwhile, the Sabres find themselves second to last in Penalty Minutes which should mean limited power plays for the Lightning. However, Ullmark has been so bad the Lightning should be able to feast on him considering they rank 10th in league at GF/G. I don't see really see the Under an option with these two between the pipes..