Here's my notes for the Boston/Toronto game tonight. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone!
============================
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
My Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs/Boston Bruins Over 6 (-105) - L
Boston is 3-1-1 Over/Under their previous 5 regular season matchups against Toronto
Boston is 3-3-1 Over/Under their previous 7 regular season home matchups against the Maple Leafs
Boston is 8-4-2 Over/Under their previous 14 post season matchups against Toronto
Boston is 5-1-2 Over/Under their previous 8 post season home matchups against the Maple Leafs
As it's clear to see above, in recent regular season matchups these two teams have tended to lean towards the Over when playing each other. In post season matchups these two have almost always gone over - especially when in Boston. In the 2018 playoffs Boston finished 6-4-2 Over/Under overall. In home games they were 4-1-1 Over/Under. As for Toronto, they finished 4-2-1 Over/Under overall and 3-0-1 Over/Under on the road.
Frederik Andersen should be starting between the pipes for Toronto and his regular season ended with a 36-16-7 record, a 2.77 goals-against-average and a .917 save percentage. His final game of the regular season wasn't very pretty, giving up 5 goals to the Canadiens. Andersen actually gave up at least 4 goals in three of his final five regular season games. His best in that span (allowing just 1 goal) had to come against the leagues lowest scoring offense (New York Islanders). He'll be in for another difficult night tonight facing Boston at home. The Bruins are ranked 11th in the league for goals scored during the season (3.16), 9th in the league for shots (32.68) and 3rd in the league for power play goals (0.79). Andersen couldn't stop the Bruins last year in the post season as we saw Boston score 7, 3, 7, and 5 goals in each of their home games versus the Maple Leafs. In his one road matchup against Boston during the regular season Andersen allowed the puck to get by him 6 times. Nothing here really points to him allowing anything less than 3 again - that seems to be his floor against the Bruins. Boston also finished the regular season strong, scoring at least 3 goals in nine of their last ten and going 7-2 Over/Under..
On the other side it'll be Tuukka Rask getting the nod for Boston. His regular season ended with a 27-12-5 record, a 2.42 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. If you ask him, Rask would probably say he didn't end his regular season the way he would've liked. He lost 3 of his last 4 and allowed at least 3 goals-against in three of those four as well. His evening figures to be pretty tough as well facing a Toronto team that burned him for at least 3 goals in three of their four post season matchups played in Boston last year. The Maple Leafs are ranked 4th in the league for goals scored during the season (3.49), 5th in the league for shots (33.35) and 16th in the league for power play goals (0.55). As I mentioned, last year during playoff games at TD Garden we saw Rask allow 4, 4, 3, and 1 goals to the Maple Leafs. He ended the season on a bad note and this doesn't seem like the best "bounce back" spot. He didn't play Toronto at home during the regular season..