Las Vegas Golden Knights @ Washington Capitals
My Pick: Las Vegas Golden Knights/Washington Capitals Under 5.5 (-109) - W
Washington finished the regular season 0-2 SU against the Golden Knights (1-1 Over/Under). Thus far in the postseason, the Capitals are 1-1 SU and 1-1 Over/Under. Of the 4 total regular/post season games these two have played, the Capitals have scored at least 3 goals their last three matchups - but never more than 4. Vegas has been a little more consistent scoring at least 2 goals in every game with 3+ in three of them - Once again though, never more than 4. With that in mind, I would initially think both of these teams should have an absolute ceiling of 4 goals here..
On the road, Washington has allowed 2 or FEWER goals in five out of their last seven games. At home however, we see slightly different numbers - They've allowed AT LEAST 3 goals in seven of their last nine. The matchup today actually plays into their favor a tiny bit because Vegas has been worse on the road offensively throughout the playoffs when compared to home. In road games, the Golden Knights have only surpassed 3 goals once out of eight games. Compare that to home ice where they've scored a minimum of 3 goals in six of nine. The Capitals have been a little generous at home, but the Golden Knights haven't played as well offensively in that position. Vegas may have an absolute ceiling of 4, but I doubt they'll reach that. Averaging just 2.25 goals per game on the road in the playoffs - I think Vegas will score 2 and at most 3 tonight..
We've seen the Capitals fail to top 3 goals in any of their three home games during the previous series against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, they've scored 4+ in four of their last six on the road. Vegas has played solid defense (along with amazing goal tending) throughout the playoffs, holding one of the highest scoring teams during the regular season (Winnipeg) to just 1 goal in 2 of Fleury's three road games against them. In fact, of the eight Vegas road games played this postseason, teams have surpassed 2 goals just three times. The Golden Knights are playing better defense on the road as opposed to at home during the post season. I'd be surprised to see Washington reach 3 goals in this game..
Lately, the Capitals have played better offense and defense on the road compared to at home. Meanwhile, Vegas has played better offense at home and better defense on the road. That has me thinking this game should stay under 5.5 tonight. I'd lean towards Vegas on the ML, but with the data provided feel better towards the Under.