Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.
I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines.
Over here you could take a million on one side and move the line the other way. Liabilities are never factored into the line.
I thought you bet the market? The market is all the people betting and since less than 5% can win consistently I would say the "public" moves the market. If you think a sports book is going to just keep taking one sided action then you are not thinking clearly. Even the "sharps" only hit at a 55% clip so the book would still have a 45% chance of losing.
I think the real sharps are the ones who set the opening lines and expose the books to millions and do a pretty good job. The "sharps" see the line is moving and jump on at a stale book at the opener and that # becomes more valuable the farther the closer moves away......that's where the math stops. You've let the public add value to your position that was close to a 50/50 shot to begin with.
I think there are so many "line move followers" now that the lines get pushed by the "public sharp followers" and the books know they can manipulate the betting pattern by creating a perceived "sharp" move. I would still be interested in seeing if comptrbob tracked the results of using the stalest lines for the contest