Nighttime Line Grading is an opportunity for Pregame.com to improve.
Most Las Vegas books close overnight. But the last number they offered at close on each game stays up on every odds screen (including the Pregame.com free odds page).
So, on the occasion when a Pro enters a pick into the system overnight Pacific time, and looks at the odds screen to determine the correct number, those Vegas books show odds – but they are not actually bettable at that time.
This has rarely been a practical problem, since big market moves (either on news or money) do not often happen overnight … and when they have, few picks have been made on the unmoved numbers … but there have been a 3 reported occasions since the start of this thread that an overnight line was used that was not representative of the market. In only one of those cases did the questionable line affect the Net Unit result – but we still want to be as accurate as humanly possible in in archive elements.
The following improvement should insure this nighttime issue is never again an issue.
New Line Grading Policy
Since a change is required to address this nighttime issue, now is a good time to raise the standard even higher overall when it comes to what lines the Pros picks are graded by.
Pregame.com’s goal is to make its grading lines representative of the real market … to allow a pick follower to be confident that his record following a Pro’s picks would be at least as good as any record promoted.
To remove any doubt about this – and to address the nighttime issue, here is the new standard …
There will be 6 Grading Books (all available on the Pregame.com screen):
(3 online books)
Pinnacle
The Greek
Sportsbook.ag
(3 Vegas books)
Westgate
William Hill
Southpoint
All 6 books are large operations with many players – with Pinnacle being perhaps the most respected online book; and with Westgate perhaps the most respected book in Vegas. I purposely excluded Bovada because of complaints about them providing a square line which is not bettable for many to odds screens. I purposely excluded BetOnline because of complaints about their world openers being extremely soft.
I feel strongly this is an extremely fair and representative group of sportsbooks.
When making any pick, Pros must use a line available though at least HALF the books which are bettable at the time the pick is entered into the system – with a minimum of 2 books no matter what.
So …
If all 6 books have line on the game, line used most be available through at least 3.
If 5 books bettable, available at least 3.
If 4 books bettable, available at least 2.
If 3 books bettable, available at least 2.
If 2 books bettable, available at least 2.
If 1 book bettable, pick not allowed being made.
Why a minimum of 2? Because one book could have a whacky line for whatever reason, but two books will not. This also prevents a soft opener from being exploited.
Also note that only two of the 6 books are clearly square (William Hill and Sportsbook.ag), so to get to the 3 books that will typically be required, at least one non-square book will have to have the line too.
So, when isn’t a book bettable?
Before they open a number on a game (the screen too would be blank).
If the book is in Vegas, and is physically closed (though number is still on the screen).
Good news is Southpoint is effectively open all night!
That leaves William Hill and Westgate as books that close.
It is very safe to say these two books are open till 10 pm Pacific Time and reopen at 8 am Pacific Time. The assumption moving forward is that neither of these books are considered bettable between those hours.
This solution entirely solves the matter of Nighttime grading.
Overall, these changes make the strictest grading system of any major picks selling site even stricter. A system that allows for maximum confidence that your record following a Pro’s picks would be at least as good as any record promoted.
Keep in mind that most pick followers will not be able to bet at the Vegas books … the point of this collection of 6 books is not that a follower would play at all 6, but rather that these Pregame Grading Books are representative of the overall market – and if the number is available at half of these books, it will be available most the time to anyone with at least a few outs. Most importantly, with those few outs you will get a better number more often than you’ll be forced to take a worse number – insuring in the long-run that your personal results will be at least as good as the promoted records.
Lastly, we need to rectify any non-representative lines from the past:
Case #1
6/23/2014
Stephen Nover
Book was closed – and market price used was not representative.
The money line for the pick has been changed to -160 (the exact ML price suggested as proper by the reporter of this issue).
Because the game lost, the ML change results in a change to Nover’s official net unit record. Here is the archive of the changed pick (remember, every pick made by any Pro ever is publicly archived at Pregame.com)
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=160643
Case #2
2/8/2015
Steve Fezzik
Book was closed – and market price used was not representative.
-3 was used. -3.5 was representative of market.
Pick won 64-50, so the number does not affect the result.
Even so, our goal is as close to 100% accuracy as possible.
So the grading line has been changed.
Here is the archive of the game
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=171683
Case #3
5/10/2015
SleepyJ
Book was closed – and market price used was questionable. (Sleepy is confident that at the time his line was representative across the market, but since he’s never had a single line issue, I’m asking him to accept this strict ruling)
SleepyJ used pick’em. The reporter of this issue suggest the fair price at the time the pick was made was -1.5, so we’ll use that.
The Pick still covered at that number, so the change does not affect the result.
Even so, our goal is as close to 100% accuracy as possible.
So the grading line has been changed.
Here is the archive of the game
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=175739
Even though these three cases technically followed the letter of the rules at the time, the lines used were not clearly representative of market, so these instances will remain in our historically tally of corrections.
There can be no reasonable dispute that Pregame.com’s ongoing goal is to provide site visitors without accurate records to help them decide who to follow. The numbers show us that the prior standard accomplished that goal 99.9+% of the time. This change is yet another step in that direction.
I want to thank those participating without agenda in this discussion. I am often guided by your feedback. Along those lines, I will wait 24 hours for feedback on possible tweaks to this new system. Then, I will provide the final details to the Pros for adoption starting Monday morning.