My CFB totals specialists made the game 76.5 I released OVER 72 (and there were some 71.5s still out there). Half an hour after the release some syndicate hit it up to 74. It leaked then to 74.5, and I pulled it down, knowing I was committed to do the Dream Podcast NFL today, and I wasn't going to be able to monitor the line.
It's not a matter of not having "faith" in my number,at OVER 74.5, the play was very marginal. Further, I was going to be out for 3 hours, and not monitoring the line.........for all I know it was headed to 76.5. At that point I have a play WHERE MY WRITE UP says the number should be 76.5, and I am selling OVER 76.5 as a best bet?
When I give out CFB totals I want them to be off by a MINIMUM of 3 points, and frankly I'm looking for 5+ ideally. All who have been aboard all year long know we have had NUMEROUS plays that have indeed moved that much........
Re: Dr. Bob, Mr. Gomes , RAS and other folks, I WILL COMMENT. I have every expectation that these gifted handicappers are winning players vs. widely available lines at their releases. EVERY expectation. (However, it has become very difficult to get any real volume at their numbers at release, if you are gifted better you likely can get a bet at 1 shop, maybe 2). I have little confidence that YOU will be able to win getting their plays at post, and playing them vs. the CLOSING lines. Now, they will of course disagree with me, but I welcome you going to their sites and doing the math and grading them vs. the closing numbers.
Dr. Bob's stuff is all archived on his site. He has run HORRENDOUS (he has been very unlucky in close games), but I think he is barely in the black since his home run year in 2005/2006 I think. And that is vs. his release numbers, so the math is pretty clear....... interestingly UIGEA came out in 2006 I think eliminating some of the softer lines out there, and it made it harder to win at this.
Like Dr. Bob (a guy I greatly respect for the most part.......) I experience variance as well. In 2014 I won +111 units at Pregame, I have slipped into the negative in 2015 (due to a horrific MLB season that won't be repeated in 2016). I am currently updating my football 2015 records they will be up shortly.
Gambling has variance, all who were on board with me know I had a very, very good 2014 Football season, and I still fully expect to have a solid 2015, there is 1/2 a season of NFL to go! You are going to have some bad weeks and even months in most years. As an example of good/bad luck, on the Sunday Night Football Game I knew Arizona was going to likely get the ball 1st and and I was going to release Az to punt 1st, score 1st, and Cin 3Q, ALL were great wagers. I had a 3* play on the OVER in that game, and was going to supplement that with the props, however, I was having a bad Sunday in the NFL, and made what was arguably a horrible sleep deprivated decision, and chose not to release those ultra solid plays to anyone. They went 0-3, and if I HAD put them in, I would be getting destroyed on the internet about how out of touch/bad my weekend handicap was...........the critics are VERY results oriented short term.
What matters is winning LONGTERM. I should have releasd those props, and I was wrong to leave them out (even though they went 0-3). So......in many ways the SNF game was one of the luckiest of the year for everyone who subscribes to me.
I won't make that "mistake" again. My props are historically great, and I WILL be kicking them into high gear the 2nd half of the NFL year. I am documented I believe 9-1 on Thursday props on the dream podcast by example and I simply am not releasing enough of these as official plays.
I would LOVE to be bombing the NFL board with NFL sides plays each week, but the vast majority of the lines pretty much have matched my power ratings, and those that have been off have moved quickly and often taken me off plays.
I have my NFL 3* Best bet of the week total locked and loaded, and it IS starting to move...... I will be releasing several NFL plays later this morning......let's have a huge 2nd half of the year, and thanks to all for the comments and constructive criticism.
Believe me I would LOVE to come in here and tell all I HAVE AN NFL SIDE that is OFF by 10 POINTS!! However, the truth is my very best NFL sides are typically off by 3 points, which can give us a VERY solid edge, but will win in the long run over large samples, but in any week/month no guarantees.
On an aside, when you are in Las Vegas feel free to ask ANY of the Las Vegas Sports Books Managers in town what their opinion is of me. I am a guy that makes a living betting sports, and have done so for 15 years full time in Las Vegas. I have prided myself on doing things the right way, winning with solid +EV bets. I only put out what are good bets on Pregame. I have EVERY confidence I will win 50+ units here in the next six months........let's MAKE IT HAPPEN NOW.