In one of the most shocking results in recent Grand Slam history, Botic van de Zandschulp pulled off an improbable upset against Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 US Open. Alcaraz, the tournament favorite, entered the match with staggering -10,000 odds to win, making him nearly untouchable in the eyes of bookmakers and fans alike. However, van de Zandschulp, a +1350 underdog, defied all expectations and secured a victory that will be remembered for years.
A Shocker of Epic Proportions:
Alcaraz, who was also pegged at +180 to win the entire tournament, was seen as a near-certain winner in this early-round matchup. His loss not only sent shockwaves through the tennis world but also through the betting markets, as van de Zandschulp's triumph marked one of the biggest upsets in recent tennis history.
How rare is it to see such a significant upset in a major tennis tournament? The last time a similar upset occurred was when Lukas Rosol defeated Rafael Nadal in the second round of Wimbledon in 2012. In that match, Rosol entered with odds of 23/1 (+2300), while Nadal was an overwhelming -15,000 favorite. Nadal's loss was seen as one of the most unexpected results in Wimbledon history, much like van de Zandschulp's victory over Alcaraz.
Historical Context: Comparing the Greatest Upsets:
While van de Zandschulp's win over Alcaraz is certainly monumental, it's not the only "Buster-Douglas moment" where a heavy underdog has triumphed on the grand stage of tennis. Here are a few other notable upsets that shook the tennis world:
Steve Darcis 20/1 vs. Rafael Nadal, 2013 Wimbledon First Round: Darcis stunned the tennis community by defeating Nadal in straight sets. Maybe we shouldn't lay over -10,000 on an elite Spanish tennis player? Not saying - just saying - there seems to be a pattern here.
Sergiy Stakhovsky 22/1 vs. Roger Federer, 2013 Wimbledon Second Round: Federer, a seven-time Wimbledon champion, was taken out by Stakhovsky in another shocking Wimbledon upset.
Sam Querrey 20/1 vs. Novak Djokovic, 2016 Wimbledon Third Round: Djokovic, who had been nearly unbeatable leading up to this match, fell to Querrey in a major surprise that echoed across the sport.
Denis Istomin (21/1) vs. Novak Djokovic, 2017 Australian Open Second Round: Istomin, who had to fight through the qualifiers to make it to the main draw, defeated Djokovic in a match that highlighted the unpredictable nature of tennis.
The Rarity of Such Upsets:
Upsets of this magnitude are extremely rare, especially in Grand Slam tournaments where top players are typically at their best. The odds of a player like van de Zandschulp defeating a world-class opponent such as Alcaraz were astronomical, which is why this match will be remembered as one of the most significant upsets in tennis history.
While there have been other massive shocks in men's tennis over the last decade, including the likes of Querrey, Stakhovsky, and Darcis overcoming insurmountable odds, Botic van de Zandschulp's victory over Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 US Open stands out as one of the most remarkable upsets, right up there with the biggest of them all.
This match is a reminder that in sports, and particularly in tennis, nothing is ever guaranteed, no matter how certain the outcome may seem. For bettors and fans alike, it’s a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of the game and the excitement that comes with it.