So let's tackle the easy races today, check back later tonight for a couple of long shots. If you remember last year, I wrote about Saratoga this time of year, when short favorites start taking over in the stakes races and it's no different this year. Weather looks to be dry, which should make things easier.

R12) The Travers- Let's make it very simple: #2 Essential Quality has run faster in every race this year than every other horse HAS EVER RUN. In this race, every horse is running at the same weight, but that hasn't been the case in some of his other races, and that tends to even things out a bit. E.Q. has a morning line at 4/5, but expect it to be 2/5 or there abouts race time. Midnight Bourbon #1 is probably the only horse that even has a remote chance against him at 9/2 ML, as his pedigree shows his brothers getting better and better with age. It's a 2 horse race, but expect no surprises and low pays all around. Dynamic One #4 at 6-1 ML will probably round out the trifecta. Fun to watch but probably not worth a bet............

R7) The Ballerina- Well, now you have #1 Gamine at 3/5, at even shorter odds than Essential Quality. She a Baffert horse, and incredible fast. The only time she shows weakness is off a short rest from her previous race, and that's not the case here. #3 Casual is intriguing though, especially at 15-1. She's getting five lbs from the favorite, and we saw what a difference that made last week in the Delmar race #12 that paid $50 to win. Another race not worth betting, as she'll probably go off 1-2 or 1-5, unless you can figure a way to incorporate Casual at 15-1 in there somewhere with exacta's or trifectas- watch the odds and exotic payouts.

So, there's two races with two overwhelming favorites........probably not worth betting either of them with those 2 monsters.

R8) The Forego- At least this race is a bit more contentious, but still, the favorite looks best- #7 Yaupon at 5/2, especially since he's in 4-6 lbs. light. #4 Mind Control at 7/2 ML is a Pletcher horse and could be a major player here. Last year, on fast tracks, he ran some monster races. He recently switched barns and ran well last out, and is probably a major player here. #1 Mischevious Alex ran lights out in the Carter but he bounced terribly in his last, the trainers horses are not doing well at Saratoga and he's probably still not ready to come back strong yet. #2 Whitmore is good, but he's surely not what he once was- probably a borderline contender. #3 Lexitonian ran to his best last time out, but always bounces off a top performance. So nope. The two favorites make sense, everyone else has some knocks.

Now that's three races above where I feel confident the favorites are much the best. I'll probably pass on all 3 races, and look for something more open with better payouts.

R9- H. Allen Jerkins Memorial- A 7F race with a short field, some weight variations and tons a speed open this race a bit. Probably the first race to serious consider wagerig on. Let's look at some of the contenders:

#1 Drain the Clock at 6-1 ML- 2 races back, a really good race with a bounce last race. Again trainer Saffie's horses have not been doing well here.

#2 Jackie's Warrior at 1-1 ML- super fast as a 2 year old, but hasn't ahown any improvement as a 3 year old. Still though, a strong contender everytime he steops onto the track. Shitty odds, the one to try and beat.

#4 Following Sea at 5-1- In light, some big numbers and bounces off them. If he's fresh, he could be right there.

#5 Judge N Jury at 15-1- had a big effort off a layoff and with some past soundness issues, probably not.

#6 Life Is Good at 8/5- had won 3 of his starts with big figures early in the year but some others have matched his numbers lately. Outside draw might hurt him a little with lost ground. Might move forward or backwards, it's hard to tell. Life Is Good probably needs to be used, but Following Sea and Jackie's Warrior are better values (with a serious chance).

So, now we have 4 races with no real surprises. The short fields suck too. It's a great day to watch some nice horses, but unless you are "freshstart" or JR, it's probably not worth settling on any of these races with shitty payouts. Later tonight I will finish my handicapping and try to find 3 races with some longer odds horses to throw a couple hundred at. Check back later this evening for the rest of the card.........

Waiting on your picks SSHZ at Saratoga and NFL. Thanks for posting.

Thanks.........horses will be posted later tonight as I'm not sure I'll be around tomorrow. My daughter could/should be delivering twins at any moment. We've had a couple false alarms already this week with trips to the hospital, it's been crazy. Check back, everything should be posted around 10pm or so.

Amazing how many spelling mistakes I've been making.......happy fingers are not so happy. Everything should be up and done before 10PM........

Almost done, finishing up shortly.........

Here we go........ with a $200 pot, here's my bets for the day. Further, it's not going to be a great day for long shots- most of the favorites are a step above the others. When odds suck, go multi race and throw in some longer shots and pray a couple of them get the job done. Check all my numbers to be sure, but the names are correct.

1. Pick 3-

R5) #4 Whittington Park (2-1)

R6) #1 After Five (5-1)
#9 Shiraz (3-1)
#10 Christopher (8-1)

R7) #1 Gamine (3/5)
#3 Casual (15-1)

The above  $1 Pick 3 costs $6.

2. Pick 5-

R8) #4 Mind Control (7/2)
#7 Yaupon (5/2)

R9) #2 Jackie's Warrior (1-1)
#4 Following Sea (5-1)

R10) #2 As Time Goes By (6-1)
#6 Letruska (6/5)

R11) ALL (wide open, hope for a price)

R12) #1 Midnight Bourbon (9/2)
#2 Essential Quality (4/5)

The above Pick 5 for $.50 costs $56.

So at this point, you have a days full of racing for $62. In both tickets above, of course you could add some more horses for additional coverage, which I considered- but I wanted to leave a majority of my money for some things I really liked. See below.

3. R7- I keep going back to Casual against Gamine. With Casual getting a weight break, improving nicely and at 15-1 ML odds, I suspect he's going to give Gamine all he can handle. Without looking at late odds, it's like throwing a dart in the dark but I'd box these two together in an exacta (if it's paying well enough) and also a trifecta with both in first and second (and reversed over All in the 3rd spot.

$2 Exacta Box 1/3 ($4 total)

Trifecta 1/3/All and 3/1/All ($10 total)

4. R11 is friggin WIDE open. How to utilize that fact is the question. In R10) Baffert's horse As Time Goes By at 7/2 has some nice races and his horses usually go gang busters when they come to N.Y.

$2 Double

R10) #2
R11) All ($14 total)

$2 Double

R11) All
R12) 1/2 ($14 total)


So if you played the minimum's I've listed so far, you've spent $106 total. You can double up every bet for $212 total or play one bet heavier over the others- I'm going to let you decide on your own. Or just bet the $106 and enjoy the day's racing. There's a lot of action here for some small money.

I'm also mentioning it's worth watching the odds for Casual in R7- if he stays around 15-1, a W/P/S bet for something might make some sense. He's really the only higher odds horse I found for the day that makes some sense, but he's up against a monster in Gamine.

Otherwise, don't go crazy. There's always next week (and the week after and so on).

If something is not clear, feel free to ask........ the formatting moves stuff around from the way I type it.

SSHZ, nothing about nothing but that's 1 avatar I can get behind. Just let me pull out that bong. Bol

Did I mention so purple

It's 2:35AM and I'm still working on the horses........ I'm a sick puppy. LOL A few things I wanted to add.

1. In Race 7, Gamine is giving anywhere from 3 to 12 lbs. to his opponents. Weight is the great equalizer in horse racing. Remember, they call Saratoga the "Graveyard of Favorites" for a reason. Take some chances, throw a couple longer shot horses on your tickets. You may be rewarded. Dave Litfin at Bloodhorse loves the #5 and #7, Thorograph does not.

2. My long shot buddy loves King Fury at 15-1 in The Travers. He has a great race pattern, coming off a bad grass race after 2 good dirt races. I've seen others who like him too. I'm not particularly keen on him, but he is another 15-1 shot who I suspect will go off a lot shorter odds than his ML.

3. Race 8 with Yaupon and Mind Control's race may be more competitive than first thought. 5 of the 8 entrants are Grade 1 winners, Yaupon is not one of them. Firenze Fire #8 I did not mention. He was just moved into Todd Pletcher's barn and is coming in fresh. I have him for 3rd, but he might surprise as some horses respond to a change, Saratoga and Pletcher obviously knows what he's doing.

4. In R10, the As Time Goes By race- #6 Letruska has won 5 of 6 since her blinkers were removed, and the loss was by a head. She has already won her way into the Breeders Cup Distaff in November thru previous win-and-your-in races (twice). She might warrant some consideration in other wagers.

5. Race 11, the Sword Dancer looks like a decent race. Your A horses are 1,2 and B horses are 6,7. It's a 3 turn, long race. Those 4 horses may not be enough though. We already went ALL in a ticket above, here's a narrowing down for other tickets if need be.

I'll be following along tomorrow thru the day, it looks like I'm not going anywhere. I had a root canal on Thursday, it bothering me quite a bit. I'll address any scratches or changes as the day rolls on.