I work in the film industry and been following the Oscars campaign since last fall. Here are my bets. I got these lines pretty early so I’m happy to tell you if I think there’s still value depending on what odds you get. Also, I’m not listing all the categories because there’s a lot but feel free to ask me about any specific categories you are interested in betting. I can give you my thoughts.
Best Picture
Green Book - Triple Dime Bet (+700)
Green Book won at the PGA awards and since its inception in 1990, 72% of winners have gone on to win best picture. This is turning into a 2 horse race but I think the academy will give Roma best foreign film. They tend to vote for films that are crowd pleasers vs cinematic (Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction). A lot of members still feel like Netflix film’s are TV movies. My one concern is Peter Farrelly didn’t get an director nomination but he did get a DGA nomination. THe last film to win best picture without a director nomination is ARGO and it’s only happen 3 times. I think this will be #4.
Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz - Single Dime Bet (+1200)
At this price, I’ll throw some pizza money. This is more of a wide open race than people think. Vegas has Regina King as the favorite but she hasn’t won any of the major awards. She wasn’t nominated for a SAG award so not a lot of respect for her among her peers. Rachel just won BAFTAS and gaining a little momentum so I see some value there.
Best Costume Design - Triple Dime Bet
Ruth Carter Blank Panther (+300)
Ruth is the first African American female nominee in this category and should be the favorite in this category. Vegas has this wrong and is going based off of statistics while I’ve had several conversation with academy members. If I’m wrong here, Black Panther will win production design. It’s one or the other.