Thanks Penny.
I had to go with Gastelum too. Whittaker arguably lost that 2nd fight with Romero and at best simply survived. Gastelum is at the top of his game and packs a HEAVY punch - much heavier than Romero who wobbled Whittaker several times. Romero isnt the quality of boxer that Gastelum is and Gastelum would finish Whittaker if he catches him. Both of these fighters are intelligent and patient in their approach, which coupled with solid defense of both fighters should easily push this fight into the 3rd round. In the 4th is when I expect to see gas lights flashing and hands lowering, but these fighters will still be unloading heavy when they do strike. Neither fighter is inclined to take this fight to the ground, tho the rear naked choke after surviving a heavy onslaught of strikes that doesn't stop the fight is always a possibility. If Gastelum wins, I see it being by KO, and expect that to be later in fight considering the fighter approaches and their solid defense before fatigue sets in. Whittaker throws wide long punches which I think benefits Gastelums ability to to dodge, stay compact and counter (see: Bisping KO). If it gets to decision, I cant imagine Gastelum getting a unanimous decision on Whittakers home turf.
I spread my bet out with him to try and maximize some profit with not much extra risk. Im likely over thinking this lol
Gastelum +210 (.50 unit)
Gastelum by TKO/KO +320 (.40 unit)
Gastelum wins in 4th +1450. (.08 unit)
Gastelum wins in 5th +2000 (.08 unit)
Gastelum by submission +1400 (.10 unit)
Gastelum by split/maj decision +1735 (.05 unit)
Using $100 as a unit, if Gastelum wins by let's say, disqualification or unanimous decision, i would still win $34. A Whittaker win only results in $121 loss