just wanted to update some of your prices, bringing them to current value, and share some of my own. First, yours...
Who will control the House? Republicans .35 cents to win $1 GOP House .39
Who will control balance of power? GOP House GOP Senate .34 cents to win $1. GOP House & Senate .39
Who will be Speaker of House? Jim Jordan .20 cents .18
Kevin McCarthy at .12 cents .19 (great value buy if you got him at .12)
Will Joe Donnelly be re-elected? NO .46 cents to win $1 .44
Will Bill Nelson be re-elected? NO .48 cents to win $1 .40
UPSET Special - Will Debbie Stabenow be re-elected? NO .10 to win $1 .18
Which party will win Kansas Governors race? Republican .56 to win $1 .62
Which party will win Florida Governors race? Republican .45 to win $1 .39
and now a few of mine
FL Gov, I would buy at DEMS .63 - (this was 50/50 not that long ago) Gillum is continuing to build momentum, despite Hamilton tickets fiasco. Despite some alarming headlines, even from moderate outlets, people realizing there's nothing to the story other than bad optics. If there was no quid pro quo, there's no corruption. Violating FL campaign finance law by not reporting a gift over $50 is like a jaywalking ticket. It's Florida, ethics - on both sides - are a joke. And I live here.
WISC Gov - DEMS .65 - cheeseheads know Scott Walker well and that's a bad thing for him. This price is rising quickly. Polling - mostly meaningless I know - is showing Walker behind and the betting public is tilting toward a Scott Walker send-off.
upset pick - GA Gov - DEMS .35 - Despite widespread voter suppression by her opponent, in his day job, I think her base turns out. This would be an upset, but I think its a value pick at +200 basically.
huge favorite, but easy money - OREGON Gov - DEMS .80 This should be .90+ cents.
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US House - DEMS .65 ... I'd bet the house on this one at -200. Fortunately, my wife's name is on the house too so I can't do that.
DEM House / GOP Senate .58 ...this is probably better value than the future above, because I just dont see a way fro Dems to win the Senate, and the House seems automatic.
STONE COLD value LOCK OF THE CENTURY
"How many House seats will Democrats hold after 2018 midterms?"
According to RealClearPolitics there are 205 Safe DEM seats, 199 safe GOP seats and 31 seats listed as "toss up".
Of those 31 Toss Ups, 29 are held by Republicans.
236-240 .09 - Tsunami blue wave theory. DEMS have to win every Toss Up and at least one Safe GOP seat.
231-235 .11 - Blue Wave
226-230 .14 - typical for a first term president's mid-term elections, House goes to opposite party. Dems hold their own and win 21 to 25 of the toss ups. LOCK IT IN - but sprinkle a bit on the future above and below to hedge.
218-225 .18 - blue trickle, but if the base doesn't turn out as expected, very possible.
Charlie, many of the prices on the Predicit site are fluid which I am sure you are aware of. Prices fluctuate and I won't go through each individually again. It's just redundant. My initial and added on selections are here for all to see and my initial inception prices are listed. As previously highlighted but will mention again, my prices are already locked in with a local and were converted to a money-line via implied probability. So for example my investment on John James at .10 cents converted to 10% implied probability equals to +900 money-line. My investments are straight bets and that can work against me if my selection loses because I am locked in and can't actively manage my risk through trade. If I am correct in thinking the Predictit site allows for bid/ask pricing with a spread, I would be in the money on many of my selections and inclined to trade in and out, before creating "free shares" in essence to ride out into the primary.
I have to continue to respectfully disagree with your assessment of the Sunshine state. I believe that the Republican vote in Florida that propelled Trump to the White House will be just as strong if not stronger not only for the governors race but also the senate race as well, hence my investments in Ron Desantis and Rick Scott. Republican early voter turnout is outpacing Democrat early vote turnout in Florida as well as many other states. (See link below). One other factor I consider in Florida is the panhandle early vote, (which went Trump "bigly") is not factored in due to the recent hurricane that swept through, yet the Republican early vote turnout is net positive. In my opinion those folks who haven't been able to cast an early ballot in NW Florida will show up in droves on November 6th and send Desantis and Scott to the winners circle.
In Wisconsin Scott Walker should benefit from the recent economic infusion of investment by Foxconn and the subsequent jobs that are/will be created in the Mount Pleasant area, just a short drive away from Kenosha and Milwaukee. That's a key demographic area which will give an opportunity to the African American community to gain high paying employment within the manufacturing sector via Foxconn. Economic opportunity "trumps" (pun intended) identity politics and Walker will benefit from the Trump economic train. The incumbent Walker has shown an ability to win since 2010, even in a heavily contested recall election in 2012, and in my opinion will once again win re-election in the Badger state, despite the influence of radical bastion of socialist/communist Madison.
You may say voter suppression I may say challenging and verifying the authenticity of those on the voter rolls. It's a tactic that is well established within both parties. I could not care less about the underlying motives as voter suppression is ALWAYS denounced as oppressive and racist by the Left. It's a tired race baiting divisive charge that is akin to the little boy who cried wolf. Quite simply, if you are a legitimate and legal voter than there should be no issue in proving your right to vote. I would submit this whole "voter suppression" nonsense can easily be fixed with the implementation of Voter ID law, wouldn't you? Then nobody can claim voter suppression, could they?
I don't get down in the weeds with all the different House races as I do with Senate races. There are just too many to keep track of, however, I will continue to relate, the Republicans will hold the House. I am starting to inch toward placing an investment on 60 or more Senate seats.
What is typical of mid term elections in the past (opposite party of President winning midterms) in my opinion just isn't applicable to President Trump and the current climate of politics. We are in a completely different dynamic now and highlighted by partisanship not seen before in modern history like we are witness to now. When that dynamic is taken into account we can make an inference that allows for the application of 2016 numbers to 2018 mid-terms, and those results aren't beneficial to the Democrat party. To understand this one would have to accept that President Trump has established a new and growing base within the Republican party that takes precedence over the Republican party itself. Trump IS his own party. He isn't the tail wagging the Republican dog, HE IS THE DOG, and an Alpha one at that. It's imperative to reconcile this mindset in order to make the necessary inferences to the greater Republican electorate. There is a growing loyalty to this President not seen in previous administrations, regardless of party, and that loyalty will turn out and vote in numbers correlating very closely to 2016, IF NOT HIGHER.
Presidential election turnout in 2016 was 59.3% and in mid-term years the mean drop-off is 17%, so the TV talking heads and pundits are expecting total voter turnout to be in the low 40 percentile, which align with historical norms. They aren't giving legitimacy to the new normal, the new paradigm. They are working from a perspective that has been rendered obsolete and that is where I feel I can take advantage of the odds, because the odds aren't reflective of the overall undertone that I sense. I have made an argument as to why I think turnout is going to not only reach 2016 levels, but quite possibly topple the 60% mark. Within that general argument there are specific points of argument (economics/GDP, jobs/wage growth, business/consumer sentiment, etc.) that this administration has made a profound and positive impact that is the foundation for historic turnout in this upcoming mid-term. The Republican electorate is again awake and has been re-energized and even more so now than in 2016, and that was historic. This IS a referendum on the President and his supporters and I am investing accordingly.
Sorry for the long but necessary explanation. As President elect said on election night, "sorry to keep you waiting, complicated business folks, complicated business!"