"being a Florida resident, the most intersting storyline to me is Andrew Gillum's turnout. Gillum was a surprise winner of the primary with a hidden turnout - youth, progessives and african-americans. If they turn out again, that will propel him - and many others, including Bill Nelson to victory.
Or history repeats itself, those demographics don't turn out, and all those future wagers are losers."
charlie, Isn't that the million dollar question? Turnout is always the unknowable ingredient. I think we can get tips and clues along the way when using "intensity" of human reaction to singular events. We can extrapolate turnout based on that "intensity" and try to compare that to historical norms. The difference that I observe currently is that traditional means of measuring turnout, for example, polls, are unreliable even when taking into account a + - percentage margin for error. There is no greater evidence of that the the 2016 presidential election.
I think many charlatan pundits and Democrat operatives are taking for granted typically Democrat stronghold areas and that is to their party detriment, in my opinion. There is an awakening occurring in this country and it is reaching down into the younger generations, as there is evidence that the millennial demographic of voters are becoming increasingly more open to the Republican party.
When taking into account the indoctrination of students around American campuses within the Democrat/Progressive/Socialist/Communist movement, one must also look to the opposite end of the spectrum. In my opinion that is not being reported and we can also clearly see that same dynamic playing out throughout the national coverage. I think the charade of the Democrat/Progressive/Socialist/Communist party is starting to unravel. I believe an echo chamber exists within all forms of media which gives an invalid impression to the masses that the ideology of Democrat/Progressive/Socialist/Communists is greater than it really is. But those who pay closer attention and form their own viewpoints are starting to see the cracks in the proverbial left wing dam.
Your last demographic, the African American community, is going through an even greater awakening that is scaring the hell out of the Democrat/Progressive/Socialist/Communist party. As more African Americans wake up to the plantation mentality that has been fostered in them for the last 50 plus years the more they are starting to form alternate opinions that are leading them away from the Democrat/Progressive/Socialist/Communist party. Evidence of this is no more clearer than to witness the sea change in sentiment illustrated in a recent poll where African American voters approved of President Trump by almost 40%. (Yes I do realize polls, as I have pointed out, are unreliable). Nonetheless, even taking into account a large margin for error, let's use 20%, African Americans are solidly backing the President by 15-20%, and using those numbers as proxies for possible ballots being cast for Republicans in the primaries, one can make a reasoned decision and subsequent investment that what we may see is not a Blue Wave, but a Red Tsunami in the upcoming primaries.
Charlie I hope you are safe and dry down there!