Point Blank – August 15
Be prepared to not like Andy Dalton this season…And if you haven’t been a fan of the Tragically Hip, be prepared to make up for lost time…Be prepared to do the proper digging on your NFL breakdowns (you need to learn who to trust and who not to)…Be prepared for a different look at Cole Hamels than what the box score quick read showed you…And alas, be prepared for a duller Election cycle than was once expected…
The pace is getting rather swift on the betting boards these days, the MLB races heating up (18 teams within six games of a Wild Card spot in mid-August), the NFL pre-season in full swing, and terrific work being done on the Olympics front from some of the regulars here. The flip side is what looked like a General Election cycle that had a chance to be sublimely entertaining may now deteriorate to a level of dullness, but at least it is likely to turn out quite well for the pockets. More on that in a moment.
Because the week ahead is so busy the jukebox will be plugged in throughout for some background entertainment, but in truth it would have been plugged in this week even had it been the All Star break, there is something of such a special level that is taking place. These next few days build to the final stage of one of the great careers across the Rock and Roll era, and one that is presenting us with an ever-so-rare zenith of audience and artist coming together. What is unique is how little of the global cultural world is even plugged in to the story, but that is also part of what makes it so special.
The Tragically Hip have been a supergroup across the Canadian landscape for more than three decades, with 14 studio albums, a host of Juno awards, and in many ways becoming a voice of a nation (and since Canada has been my second home for most of this millennium, I have been lucky enough to have plugged in). They chose to be that voice, rather than taking a path that would lead to cross-over appeal in the U.S. and Europe, and that created a rare bond to their audience that has only grown over time. Sadly life’s realities have taken a turn, with lead singer/songwriter Gord Downie (make sure to search out his solo work as well) being diagnosed with gliobastoma, a terminal brain cancer that is not curable. So what would have been a summer tour to support “Man Machine Poem”, their latest album, has become instead a farewell cascade across Canada, and the shows have simply been remarkable, the talents of Downie and the band turning what could have fallen into being somber occasions and elevating them to a level of artistry/audience connection rarely seen (for some good background on that you can go to Macleans)
Now the end is drawing near, a final show in Kingston, Ontario on Saturday that will be broadcast across the nation on CBC. So as you do your numbers crunching this week the background becomes something that can elevate anyone in their own daily existence, beginning with “Ahead by a Century”, from Edmontion -
Item: Andy Dalton doesn’t have Hue Jackson’s playbook anymore (nor Marvin Jones/Mohamed Sanu)
The daily tour across the NFL teams takes us to Cincinnati today, where you are going to read good things about Dalton in the pre-season magazines; it is inevitable. A random sample from one major publication brought – “He took real leadership of the team, but it was his decision making and protection of the ball where he showed the biggest areas of improvement. After throwing 37 interceptions in 2013-14, Dalton cut those back to seven last year, while throwing 25 touchdowns. His yard-per-attempt was a career-best 8.42 and he completed 66.1 percent of his passes.”
The statistics are absolutely true – they happened, but what about the interpretation? Was it really Dalton making those strides, or was it the fact that he had Hue Jackson’s playbook, and arguably the best supporting cast in the skill positions of any NFL QB? That offensive potential was the theme when the Bengals were previewed here last year, and they did not disappoint.
Dalton had a career-high 106.2 Passer Rating, never having been above 88.8 before, and only 83.5 in 2014. But how much of that should be attributed to him stepping up, and how much was the terrific supporting cast, and Jackson opening up that “Pandora’s Box”? When A. J. McCarron had to replace Dalton for the final three games it was still a 97.1 Passer Rating, and that includes the weighting of a road game against Denver, the best defense in the league, as a big part of that sample.
The pieces around Dalton are still good, but there is work to be done. Jones and Sanu are gone, and while Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd bring potential as their replacements, how quickly will they fit in? New OC Ken Zampese has been with the Bengals since Marvin Lewis took over, but does he bring anywhere near the creativity and flair of Jackson? I peg Dalton as an average talent that was given a QB’s dream in 2015, but now will have much more falling on his shoulders, especially having to direct the offense through a transition cycle vs. an arduous early schedule (Steelers, Broncos and Patriots within a span of three weeks).
The Bengals have the talent to not just make the playoffs, but get to the Super Bowl, if they get elevated play out of the QB position. There is a genuine question as to whether Dalton can elevate – was 2015 part of an ascending arc, or did it instead reflect his ceiling? My inclination is towards the latter, and with others in the Sports Mediaverse painting a different portrait it could mean some opportunity ahead.
And on the subject of those abstract portraits…
Item: With Carson Wentz as the example, learn to double-check your sourcing
OK, I know a lot of you are digging deeply into the pre-season results, looking not only for edges that can be put into play immediately, but also items that will help to build team definitions that will be of value later in the season. As such the sorting process can be a difficult one. For instance what if you had the diligence to go to the Philadelphia Inquirer on Friday morning, and added Wentz looks promising in debut to your files? There is a rather positive impression created there.
But what about our friends at Pro Football Focus? They came away grading Wentz with a zero passer rating on attempts under pressure, with the negative yardage for an interception factored in -
So the stage was set for Wentz to impress—and potentially put pressure on Daniel—as the No. 2 quarterback. The Eagles gave him plenty of work, with 21 passes attempted by the former North Dakota State signal-caller, but Wentz wasn’t able to take advantage of the opportunity. He completed just one pass traveling 10 yards or more downfield, but it was under pressure where he really struggled. The Buccaneers got pressure on 11 of Wentz’s dropbacks, with the QB scrambling on one; he completed just three passes on the other 10.
While the local newspaper links are of the utmost importance in following training camp happenings, and hence why I continue to list The Red Zone as such a valuable source, when it comes to pre-season game recaps I believe PFF is the best starting point for an honest appraisal, and then you can go to those local papers for added detail.
Item: Cole Hamels actually did this
On a busy weekend some of you may have only glanced through the box scores instead of doing full post mortems, and if that was the case you would have missed one of the great high-wire acts of my betting lifetime at Texas on Saturday night. Hamels entered the game at 12-3/2.89, and the 2-0 defeat sent him away at 12-4/2.88, only the slightest of blips on the ERA radar screen. But that single-game ERA of 2.86 does not come close to telling the story.
Hamels faced 34 batters, and 17 of them reached via either a hit or a walk, the Tigers having a .452/.500/.588 slash line for the evening. For 15 runners to reach base without scoring across seven innings is an improbability not easy to measure, and also note that Hamels gets credit for seven full innings, or 21 outs, despite only having retired 17 Detroit batters.
How about this for the best sequence of all, a span of seven batters starting with Mike Aviles leading off the fourth inning for the Tigers -
Walk
Single
Strikeout
Double
Single
Single
Single
How many runs were produced? Just one. For all of the trust that we would like to be able to put into our databases, some nights Baseball just happens.
Item: 2016 Election Power Rating: Democrats -700
On Friday there was a brief note detailing that the Power Rating had been raised again, with the pertinent info to follow today, and after doing all of the sorting and calculating over the weekend the number gets to an even higher level. What was the key? In the grand scheme it will sound trivial, but it was New Hampshire. There have been four post-convention polls that average out to Hillary Clinton leading in double figures in the Granite State, and it carries the distinction of literally being the the stone that pushed the Democrats wall over 270 electoral votes in the model we are using.
It should not come as a shock that New Hampshire would lean Blue, having gone +9.6 to the Democrats in Obama/McCain and +5.6 in Obama/Romney, but it was not listed as “Safe Democrat” in any of our early trackings because of how the primaries flowed, with Bernie Sanders showing well against Clinton, and Donald Trump having a strong count. With the substantial gap in the recent polls, plus past trends and studies of the voter demographics, it was moved into that new classification, and as such the rating expands as the Electoral College realities come into focus.
Here is why the number goes to where it is, and it can best be viewed through a map put together for an article by Harry Enten and the folks at 538 -
Essentially “Safe Democrat” now brings a tipping point in which the Republicans could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, all states in which they are small underdogs at this time, and still lose the election. Yet the Donald Trump campaign faces a challenge to win any of those states, much less all, while it appears that traditionally Red bastions like Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and South Carolina will also be in play.
Item: This isn’t just about the candidates (and why you need to steer around the silliness of the Punditry)
Much like trying to decipher how Wentz played for the Eagles in his stint on Thursday, there are a myriad of storylines being developed for this election cycle. One of the most important ones in terms of outcome continues to get short shrift, yet it is one that the Sports Handicapper would understand – the population landscape is changing rapidly. As noted previously in these threads, something that plays a big part in our “xFAV” model is adjusting for that. So think of it this way – in 2012 Barack Obama won by 3.9 percent of the popular vote, and 332-206 in the Electoral College. Now let’s adjust.
Suppose 2016 was Obama/Romney again, and that they did nothing differently – every speech the same. Our model shows that the +3.9 margin would become somewhere in the range of +5.1 to +5.4 because of the changing demographics, although the E.C. count may have stayed the same – it may not have been enough to turn North Carolina from Red to Blue, which was the only close Romney win.
Hence what is being billed as Trump vs. Clinton for dramatic purposes across the Mass Media landscape is only part of the story; there is also the fact that the electorate is growing both younger and more diverse, and because of the way that the Parties have managed their affairs over the last couple of decades, it is a diversity that leans much more Democrat in terms of affiliation.
Here is how much that balance has shifted – Florida and Ohio have long been considered major swing states, and they were the game changers in 2004. But now consider this – Romney would have lost in 2012 even if he had carried both states, and the current model shows the same for Trump this year. That is a major part of the Power Ratings process. As such for Trump and the Republicans to stem a population tide they are swimming against requires turning multiple Blue states to Red, and when you sort through the individual states in terms of recent voting history, current demographics, and 2016 polling, it is a far more difficult path than the Punditry will make it out to be. And as for that…
Item: “They” still need to sell a horse race
The takeaways we get from our models are not what you will hear in the weeks ahead. Presidential elections are a big-ticket item for the Mass Media, and they have to do what they can to keep viewers tuned in. Hence why over the weekend Punditry gabfests you would have heard things like “It’s still early in the process” and “November is a long way away”. The reality is much different.
It is not early in the process. Two weeks after the conventions in most election years the overwhelming majority of voters have already made up their minds. In the current 24/7 media world it may even have increased – there just isn’t much anyone doesn’t know about either of these candidates already. There will be ongoing Media attempts to keep the audience engaged, and in order to do that one of their tasks is to keep alive the notion of this still being “anybody’s ball game”. In terms of the E.C. our models tell a different tale, and there is also the handicapping reality that the Trump campaign does not show the foundation to create a turn. As noted often in recent weeks, it is about the Ground Game of the two Parties from this stage, and if anything that would suggest that the gap may be more likely to grow, instead of narrowing. With the Republicans having failed to come up with a robust platform to run on, and with Trump’s personal resume not giving him much ammunition, what promised at one time to be a most entertaining cycle in our nation’s history may become a rather dull affair in the weeks ahead.
So the Power Rating goes to -700, and as the wagering board also increases there is naturally a diminishing returns aspect. From the standpoint of being crass capitalists I would hope that most of you got locked in weeks ago, but for now there is still genuine value at -375 or less, and I would not fault anyone if they could lock up -400 on credit, not having the reduced utility aspect of post-up money being blocked from other usage until November 9.
In the Sights…
So far the Monday MLB board brings nothing but crumbs, but if the markets create something later in the day it will be posted in the thread, and also copied and pasted here. There was a hope of finding the Seattle Team Total at 4, which has not happened, so now it is a matter of sitting patiently and watching the trading unfold.
UPDATING – Now it is time to get in play, and with the Monday markets pushing Tampa out to as high as -205, it will be #919 San Diego (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket for a half unit. But since a half unit will return nearly a full position, it pays well.
Teams that are 47-69 this late in the season, with a struggling starter in Drew Smyly at 4-11/5.04, just do no merit this price range. Only the Twins and Braves have lost more games, and while Smyly has thrown better since the All Star break he remains wildly inconsistent. The sleeper element here is that Luis Perdomo shows more promise than his 6.80 ERA, but a 23-year old that never got to throw a pitch at AA or AAA was bound to have some struggles learning on the job. The sport has not been kind to him, with a .379 BABIP and 64.8 LOB%, and of the 124 pitchers that have thrown at least 90 innings, Perdomo is dead last in the former and #116 in the latter. Those categories will get better for him, and a 58.8 GB% that rates second to only Marcus Stroman shows the upside that he brings.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through August 14): 33
We are now down to the final 15 contestants.
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