In my humble estimation, if they ran this election 400 times, more than once Trump would drop out of the race for the Republican nomination and run as a third party on his own. In my humble opinion, that might be a wise strategy and one that he and his team have discussed.
40-1 might not be accurate, but Trump running on his own is a possibility, and might become stronger over the next few months.
Just looking at different angles -
Joe D