Today�s Free Pick
GAME: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Dec 6, 2009 1:00PM
SPORT: National Football League Picks
PICK: New England Patriots
Offered at: -3 BetJamaica
REASON FOR PICK: Without a doubt, the Patriots have one of the best offenses in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is throwing lasers all over the field, as he has thrown for 3,286 yards and 20 TDs this year. He is almost certainly headed to another 4,000+ yard and 25+ TD campaign. One glance at New England's offensive numbers shows an incredibly impressive team. The Pats rank #2 in the NFL at 411.5 yards per game, and second in passing at 297.0 yards per game. Their 27.9 points per game is good enough for fourth in the league. But take a look at what the Patriots have done on enemy soil this year. Discounting the Bucs game in England, HC Bill Belichick's squad is only averaging 19.3 points per game on the road this year, and it is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as well. Granted, a road slate consisting of the Jets, Broncos, Colts, and Saints is anything but fun, but this is still a team that has yet to prove that it can win on the road in this season.
The entire season will be on the line for HC Tony Sparano and his Dolphins on Sunday. Last week's 31-14 loss in Buffalo really put a damper on Miami's playoff hopes, especially with the remaining five games of the schedule all coming against some of the elite teams in the AFC. It's difficult to see how 9-7 would be good enough to get the Fins into the playoffs anyway, but a trip up against New England will require them to win at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, home against Houston, and home against Pittsburgh to have any hope of qualifying for the second season. RB Ricky Williams is doing his part even though his fellow backfield mate RB Ronnie Brown is out for the season. Williams has had three straight 100+ yard games for the Dolphins to lead the #3 rushing attack in the NFL. He has eight total TDs in his L/6 games.
Miami is still famous for shocking the Patriots when it debuted the Wildcat. However, New England rolled to a 48-28 victory in the return game later in '08, and stomped Miami 27-17 at home earlier this year. The line in this game may be dropping like a rock, but look for Brady and the boys to exorcise those road demons and put away the Fins for good.
Play On: New England Patriot