SPORTS WAGERING, FROM “POINT BLANK” RANGE
Monday - 8/11/14
(adj.) – So close to a target that a weapon may be aimed directly at it.
(adv.) – Without hesitation, deliberation or equivocation.
Welcome to Point Blank. And settle in for a ride that that will be fast when there is a need for speed; slower when patience is called for; and yes, occasionally turbulent.
This will be a journey about Winning, and also being a Winner. There is more than a subtle difference between the two. The navigational charts needed to reach the destination are not necessarily the one’s that will keep you safely afloat once you arrive. There are no docks - some of the greatest minds I have met were able to sail into the Winner’s harbor, and then got taken right back out as the same tide receded. Drop anchor? You may successfully do that in most other endeavors; not this one.
The Betting Markets shift, much as a tide changes, but not with the same predictable regularity. Players and coaches change and adjust. Oddsmakers change and adjust. So our aim is to plot courses that lead to genuine edges at the current betting lines, and also to be aware when those edges have dulled, and a changing tide calls for significant adjustments.
Each of these columns will be part of an on-going journey to that place where the edges on a sporting event can be seen so clearly that it is time to pull the trigger and play. That is what is known as “Point Blank” range.
Each day the betting board is going to be viewed both from the particular edges that can lead you to win on that card, and also of the general skills and disciplines necessary to win in the long run. There will be a sorting through those waves of information that are available to show what can work for you, what once worked but no longer does, and what can be discarded completely (Hint: It is the vast amount of “misinformation” that gets out there each day that is actually one of our best friends).
Yes, you absolutely can win. There is a course across those waters.
Let’s begin by setting the proper goal. Singular goal - not “goals” - because there should only ever be one. Do not think about reaching particular financial plateaus. Do not bother with notions of trying to hit certain percentages over any given sports cycle. Start here, and strive to stay here –
“Win the next bet”.
That is where the proper journey begins. Never fog your sight with more than that. Reduce the clutter of extraneous notions, and seek the clarity of edges on an event that tell you a winning expectation is genuinely at hand. When you can do that, it means that you are betting from “Point Blank” range.
In the sights…
It will not be a surprise to see Pittsburgh money in the marketplace today – to fade a Tiger team having to travel after playing 19 innings will be a natural for many, especially with the Soria-less bullpen getting stretched pretty thin. But that may open a door. That marathon was of no impact to Justin Verlander, who had already traveled ahead to Pittsburgh, and who has steadied his game after getting more than a week off for the All Star break – a 2-1/3.14, with a 1.12 WHIP. But here is where the value focus can sharpen – Verlander has worked to a 1.80 tune over the first five innings of those four starts. With Neil Walker likely to hit the DL it is a woeful Pirate offense right now, and while Jeff Locke has been steady, the Detroit offense would currently win the Triple Crown vs. left-handers on the park-adjust offensive tables. The markets may create a solid First Half value to Verlander and the Tigers, and you should allow them the time to do so (-110 or less should be there at some point).