Just pathetic the last 2 days. Yesterday the breaks I was getting really caught up to me as Boston College wasn't even trying to score and the did on that last drive to push the game over the total and then I lost by a half a point on the total in the Miss State/ Rice game. Oh well. All I can do is shake it off and move on. 2-9 now my last 2 days. Let's get it back today.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia/ Nebraska Over 59.5: Last year 76 points were scored between this teams and I can see at least 70 in this one as well. All year the Bulldogs have been all about offense, while playing little defense and their games went on to average 67.6 ppg for the year. Georgia will be without Murray, but Hutson Mason played well in his lone start this year, completing 61.1% of his passes for 299 yards with 2 TDs and he will have had a month of practice to get ready for this one. The Huskers offense has been sporadic at time, but they can easily score points on a below average defense and the Dawgs certainly have that. I would not at all be surprised to see this one played in the 70s again.
Michigan State/ Stanford Under 42.5: If there was any game that was expected to be a low scoring dog fight, it would be this one. I know the Spartans are missing their best player on defense, but this is still a complete defense that is ranked 1st in total defense, 4th vs the pass, 1st vs the run and 4th in points allowed (12.7 ppg). This is one tough bunch on defense, while the offenses of the Spartans is a very conservative run based offense, that will look to burn clock and keep the Stanford offense on the sidelines. This conservative offense will face a very tough Stanford defense that comes in ranked 15th overall, 3rd vs the run and 9th in points allowed (18.6 ppg). They are 89th vs the pass but Michigan State is not a good passing team. on offense the Cardinal are also very conservative and run based, ranking 92nd in passing and 22nd in rushing. These are to very god defense that will stop these very conservative offenses an that should keep the scoring in the 30's.
10 POINT TEASER--- South Carolina +12 & Michigan State +16.5 & Baylor -6.5
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Texas -6.5 over UNLV: The Rebels had a fine year, but I feel it will end on a sour note. The Rebels have snapped their long road losing streak this year, but their 3 road wins were vs teams with a combined 7-29 record on the year, while their two road losses this year were to bowl teams Minnesota and Fresno State. Neither of those games were close either. This is not a home game for North Texas, but it is played in the state of Texas and that gives the Mean Green a big edge. The Mean Green also have a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 26th in total defense and 19th vs the run, while allowing just 18.1 ppg, which is 8th in the nation. That compares to UNLV ranking 100th overall, 112th vs the run and 93rd in points allowed, giving up 31.5 ppg. The run defenses are key here, cause both teams run more than throw it and if UNLV is stopped in early down that will force 3rd and longs and they are 65th in the nation in converting 3rd downs. North Texas, on the other hand is 23rd, but they should have shorter distances to go on 3rd downs due to the porous run defense of the Rebels. UNLV had a nice year and made it to a bowl, but McCarney has the the experience over Hauck in the bowls, the Mean Green have big special teams and defenses edges, plus they get this game a mere 40 minutes or so from their campus. Too much for UNLV to overcome this year. North Texas by 10+ here.
10 POINT TEASER--- UNLV/ North Texas under 64.5 & Georgia +1 & Michigan State/ Stanford Under 52.5
1 UNIT PLAY
LSU/ Iowa Over 48.5: LSU has opened up this offense and it has led to 37 ppg. They have scored on some very tough SEC defenses and should be able to put up points on this tough Iowa defense. The Iowa offense is not that explosive, but LSU did allow 26 points or more in all 5 of their games away from home this year. This has the feel of a 31-24 type game.
Top Plays Overall 90-72-2 (+36.0 Units)... 5 Unit 4-3-0 (+3.5 Units)... 4 Unit 11-8-0 (+8.8 Units)... 3 Unit 75-61-2 (+23.7 Units)
Top Play Totals 28-19-0 (+26.4 Units)... Top Play Teasers 30-32-2 (-17.4 Units)
Other Plays Overall 74-75-2 (-15.1 Units)... Other Play Totals 17-33-2 (-28.1 Units)... Other Play Teasers 13-21-0 (-18.7 Units)