Well Thursday isn't going great. I hope for better results on Saturday. I will have more in the Morning.
NOTE: Please remember to check out the News Section of Pregame for even more PLAYS with full analysis. I have 6 Google News plays here, plus several more in that section. You can also get plays from Brandon Watson and Tyler Morgan with full analysis there as well.
5 UNIT PLAY
OHIO STATE -17.5 over Purdue: Allot of talk in the early part of the season was about how good the defense was of the Boilermakers, especially their defensive line, but this team comes in having been shredded in their last 3 games, allowing 529.3 ypg and 41 ppg over that stretch. During those 3 games this DL has been pounded for 288.7 ypg on the ground at 6.5 yards per pop.. Not good numbers at all when your about to face an Ohio State squad that has averaged 263.6 rushing ypg at 5.8 ypc on the year, including 309.3 ypg and 6.4 ypc in their last 3 games. Oh boy, will Braxton Miller and company have a field day in this one. On the other side of the ball we have a Purdue squad that has averaged 386.5 ypg and 32.8 ppg on the year, but away from home they have struggled averaging just 288 ypg and 17 ppg. I know that OSU has struggled with their defense of late, but after allowing 49 points last week to Indiana you can bet that Urban Meyer will be looking for a much better effort from his stop troops in this one. Ohio State really has nothing to play for this year, but Urban is trying to build for the future. Last week they had a big lead vs Indiana and nearly lost in in the end, winning by just 3. He will make sure his team stays focused and play the entire 60 minutes. Purdue will not be let back in this one. Ohio State by 25+ points in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 over Idaho: Google News Play I have had the pulse of the La Tech Bulldogs this year and they have been very good to me. This is a team that has an unstoppable offense as they come in averaging 538.7 ypg and a whopping 53.8 ppg. Last week they took on a Texas A&M team that had a decent defense and put up 57 points on them. La Tech has now played and SEC Defense a Big 10 defense and an ACC defense and have averaged 51 ppg in the 3 games. So what will they do vs an Idaho team that has allowed 55.7 ppg in their last 3 road games. In that stretch they allowed 63 points to an LSU offense that is having offensive problems and last week they allowed 38 points to a Texas State team that was averaging just 18.8 ppg vs FBS foes prior to that game. Even more troubling for Idaho may be their offense as they were able to put up just 7 points on a Texas State team that had allowed 35 ppg vs FBS teams prior to that game. Overall the Vandals are 111th in total offense (315.5 ypg) and 121st in scoring 14.3. Even vs a soft defense like the Bulldogs I just don’t see Idaho putting up enough points to keep this one close. La Tech is off their first loss of the year and teams in that situation usually struggle, but not this time. La Tech can still have a special season and will now turn their sights to a WAC title, so I don’t expect them to let down here. This one just has blowout written all over it.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK-- Wisconsin -9.5 & Texas -1.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
TENNESSEE +20 over Alabama: We all know how god the Bama defense is, but after Michigan who have the really played? An Arkansas team that was without QB Wilson, Ole Miss, a Missouri team that was a using a backup QB and Backup center and a couple of Sun Belt squad. This defense hasn’ t has not been tested by the passing attack they will face this week. This Tennessee offense has a lot of pop as they have averaged 4872 ypg and 38 ppg on the year so far. In their last 3 games they have put up 510.3 ypg and 39.3 ppg and two of those games were on the road vs a couple of solid defenses in Georgia and Miss State. The Vols have thrown for 299 ypg and should be able to move the ball on this untested Bama secondary. On defense the Vols are poor, but Bama is mostly a power running team, and that should eat clock and shorten the game which will not allow them to run away and hide in this one. The defense won’t keep this one close, but I believe it will be their offense that will have enough big plays to keep this one under the number. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST Any team with a defense that allows 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in previous game. This play is 35-6 the last 10 seasons.
LSU -3 over TEXAS A&M: The Tigers of LSU showed a bit better offense last week vs a tough South Carolina defense. They are off BB tough games vs South Carolina and Florida, but this is still a huge game because they are not out of the National picture race just yet. A loss here though would knock them out. The tigers do have Bama on deck but they do have a week off after this one, so they will be fully focused for the task at hand. The Aggies do have the advantage on offense, but are clearly out matched on the defensive sided of the ball and I believe that will cost them here big time. The Aggie defense ranks 73 overall and 111th vs the pass and that could have Mettenberger looking at a solid day. The Aggie offense is 6th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense, but in their only game vs a defense of this caliber (Florida), they were able to put up just 17 points (0 in second half) and just 334 yards. Now they face a Tigers defense that is 2nd in the nation in total defense (219.6 ypg), 2nd vs the pass (130.6 ypg) and 8th in points allowed (14 ppg). It will not be all that easy for A&M to move the ball in this game. The team with the better defense should win this game and that is clearly on the side of the Tigers. They have momentum from last weeks win over South Carolina and have a week off before Bama, so look for a focused effort from this squad as they win by at least a TD.
Stanford/ California Under 49: The Cal Bears are starting to play much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have allowed just 17 points in each of their last 2 games. The Cal defense has allowed 403 ypg and 26.5 ppg at home this year, but they will be taking on a Stanford squad that pays very conservative on the road, thus not scoring many points. Stanford has had just 2 road games this year, but they were both big games (like this one) and that has them playing conservative and they have scored just 13 points in each of those games. Overall Stanford has scored 21 points or less in 4 of their 6 games. The Cal offenses is starting to come around again as they have put up 74 points in their last 2 games, but they will be going up against a very tough Stanford defense in this one. Stanford had one bad defensive game, but if you take out the 48 points they allowed vs Arizona (In OT) then they have allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg in their other 5 games. Both of these defense are in fine form right now and I don't expect allot of points in this one. Look for high 30's at best in this one.
South Carolina/ Florida Under 41: Google News Play Both of these defense are solid and really playing at a high level right now and that should keep the scoring down. The Florida Gators have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 297 ypg and a mere 12.3 ppg on the year. They have also allowed just 2.2 ppg in the 3rd quarters this year and 1.7 ppg in the 4th, so their defense is even tougher in the second half of games. The South Carolina defense has also been very tough this year as they have allowed just 12.3 ppg on the year and for the first time in 11 games (dating back to last year) they allowed more than 20 points in the loss to LSU last week. Both teams like to run the ball and with two elite defenses I just don't see more than 35 points in this one.
7 POINT TEASER--- Michigan/ Michigan State Under 50 & Florida State -14
7 POINT TEASER--- Oregon State -3 & Penn State/ Iowa Under 49
7 POINT TEASER--- Maryland+10.5 & Boise State/ UNLV Under 62
2 UNIT PLAYS
BYU/ Notre Dame Under 40 Google News Play
Auburn +7 over VANDERBILT Google News Play
Florida State -21 over MIAMI
1 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnati/ Toledo Over 64.5 Google News Play
TEXAS -8.5 over Baylor
Boston College/ Georgia Tech Over 63 Google News Play
3 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (12-4-1 +7.6 UNITS)
Play AGAINST any CFB road faves if they have a win pct of .600 or less and are off an OT win in which they scored at least 24 points in that win. Teams in this spot are 3-17-1 ATS. Play ON Central Michigan +3.5 over Ball State.
Play AGAINST any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater, off its first loss of the year, if they were favored and allowed 35 or more points in the loss – and they won 9 or more games last season. Teams in this spot are 3-17 ATS. Play ON Kansas State +2.5 over WEST VIRGINIA
Over the last 3 seasons, Notre Dame has gone 11-1 to the Under if they allowed 14 points or less in their last game. Play Notre Dame/ BYU Under 40.