Expanded Summary: The Sentry Picks and Predictions

Will Doctor’s podcast dives into the opening event of the 2025 PGA Tour season, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In an energetic and detailed discussion, he provides insights into the tournament, players, and betting predictions, setting the stage for what promises to be a memorable year in golf.

 Tournament Overview

The Sentry, played on the iconic Plantation Course at Kapalua, is the first of 36 PGA Tour regular season events and one of 8 signature events for 2025. Kapalua’s breathtaking course design features dramatic elevation changes, scenic par fives, and short par fours under 400 yards, encouraging low scores.

Doctor emphasizes the excitement surrounding the year’s schedule but critiques the PGA Tour’s planned 2026 changes, which include reducing field sizes, eliminating Monday qualifiers, and cutting PGA Tour cards from 30 to 20. He passionately advocates for the 2,000 professional golfers who will face fewer opportunities under these changes.

?‍?? Field Analysis

This year’s Sentry features a 60-player field, including 37 of the world’s top 50 players. Notable names in the lineup include:

• Justin Thomas: Two-time winner at Kapalua and coming off strong performances in late 2024.
• Collin Morikawa: Known for consistent finishes at Kapalua.
• Xander Schauffele: Previous winner of the tournament.
• Victor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama: Among other standout players in the field.

The absence of world number one Scottie Scheffler, recovering from a hand injury, is a significant loss. However, Doctor notes that the field remains robust and competitive.

 Player Predictions and Betting Insights

Justin Thomas (11-1)

Despite ongoing struggles with putting, Thomas’ exceptional ball-striking keeps him in contention. Doctor predicts a strong performance at Kapalua, with bets on an outright win (11-1) and a top-10 finish (+110). He also highlights Thomas’ history of starting tournaments strong, making him a smart pick for the first-round leader at 16-1.

Collin Morikawa (12-1)

While Morikawa has faced recent inconsistencies, his stellar Kapalua history (never finishing worse than 7th in seven appearances) makes him a solid choice. Doctor recommends betting on Morikawa to win a matchup against Hideki Matsuyama (-139).

Xander Schauffele (7-1)

Schauffele’s strong ball-striking contrasts with his putting struggles on Kapalua’s greens, leading Doctor to avoid backing him despite his past success. He suggests that Schauffele’s performance may fall short of the projected winning score of -24.

Sung Jae Im (18-1)

Though Im has consistently performed well at Kapalua in recent years, unfavorable odds and matchups make him less appealing. Doctor skips bets on him this week but anticipates his next PGA Tour victory within the month.

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

Cantlay’s lack of elite putting in low-scoring conditions makes him a poor fit for Kapalua. While consistent, he has not shown the ability to win in putting-focused contests, leading Doctor to avoid any bets on him this week.

Ludvig Åberg (18-1)

Åberg is an emerging star but is held back by putting inconsistencies. While he remains a promising prospect for a future win, Doctor doesn’t believe it will happen this week.

Akshay Bhatia (+110, Top 20)

Bhatia is a rising talent coming off consecutive top-5 finishes. His affinity for coastal courses like Kapalua makes him a standout pick to finish in the top 20 this week.

 Additional Bets and Predictions

• Outright Winners:

  • Justin Thomas (11-1): Backed by strong ball-striking and past success at Kapalua.
  • Max Graesserman (45-1): Highlighted as a sleeper pick due to his recent performance surge after rehiring his veteran caddie.

• Sleeper Pick:
  Jonathan Vegas (3-1, Top 20): A strong driver, Vegas thrives at Kapalua’s demanding layout and is poised for a solid finish.

• Matchup Bet:
  Collin Morikawa over Hideki Matsuyama (-139): Doctor emphasizes Morikawa’s consistent form at Kapalua and Matsuyama’s recent struggles.

• Best Bet:
  Max Graesserman to finish in the top 10 (+350) is deemed the best value bet of the week.

• First-Round Leader:
  Justin Thomas (16-1): Known for fast starts, Thomas is a strong candidate for this bet.

 Fantasy Lineups

Doctor shares his fantasy picks for both DraftKings and PGA Tour Fantasy:

• DraftKings: Justin Thomas, Sung Jae Im, Akshay Bhatia, Max Graesserman, Nick Dunlop, and Jonathan Vegas.
• PGA Tour Fantasy: Core players include Thomas, Bhatia, Graesserman, and Im, with Vegas and Dunlop as substitutes.

? Course Conditions and Scoring Prediction

With favorable weather and manageable winds, Doctor predicts low scores, estimating a winning total of -24. He sees Justin Thomas or Max Graesserman as the most likely winners based on form and fit for Kapalua’s layout.

 Conclusion

Will Doctor delivers a detailed, passionate preview of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, combining sharp betting advice with an in-depth analysis of players and course dynamics. His top recommendations include Justin Thomas and Max Graesserman, with several other value picks and matchups to consider. This analysis sets the stage for an exciting 2025 PGA Tour season opener.