Introduction
On this week’s Golf Preview Podcast, host Will Doctor delivers sharp insights and predictions for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour (KFT) Championship. The episode is filled with expert analysis on player statistics, matchups, and outright bets, offering listeners valuable advice on how to approach their betting cards for these two major tournaments. Will Doctor breaks down each player's performance, highlighting key trends and form, while keeping an eye on the betting odds to find the best value.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
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Jon Rahm (0:54 - 5:20)
Jon Rahm opens at +650 odds following a strong second-place finish at the Open de España. Despite his fantastic run over the past few months, Will Doctor decides to pass on Rahm for this event. Rahm has played well on the LIV Golf Tour, with two wins in his last four starts, but Doctor notes that these victories are not as impressive as wins on the PGA or DP World Tour due to LIV’s smaller field sizes. Additionally, Rahm missed the cut at this event in 2019. Although his form is strong, Doctor emphasizes that distractions, including the ongoing dispute between LIV Golf and the PGA Tour, make Rahm a less attractive bet this week. Doctor shares a personal conversation with Rahm, where the golfer acknowledged the ups and downs in the sport, but overall, Rahm remains focused on the bigger picture. If you're a Rahm fan, Doctor gives the "green light" to bet on him, but Rahm does not make his card this week.
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Rory McIlroy (5:21 - 10:30)
Rory McIlroy, priced at +700, enters the Dunhill Links Championship with several second-place finishes this season, most notably a playoff loss to Billy Horschel at the BMW PGA Championship. McIlroy’s form has been solid, especially with his putting, which has improved significantly over his last three starts. However, Will Doctor expresses concerns about potential distractions during the event, as McIlroy is paired with PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan and Yasser al-Rumayyan (PIF Governor) in the pro-am rounds. Despite these distractions, McIlroy has knocked on the door at this tournament several times, with multiple runner-up finishes. Doctor acknowledges that McIlroy's game is in a near-perfect spot, but, like Rahm, McIlroy does not make his betting card this week. However, if forced to pick between the two, Doctor would lean toward McIlroy.
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Tyrrell Hatton vs. Tommy Fleetwood (11:00 - 16:00)
Tyrrell Hatton, priced at 11-1, has a stellar track record at the Dunhill, winning the event back-to-back in 2016 and 2017. Despite his success, Hatton has struggled with slow starts throughout the season, as demonstrated by his recent performance in Spain, where he opened with a 74 before fighting back for a top-10 finish. Doctor backs Hatton in a head-to-head matchup against Tommy Fleetwood, who has shown inconsistent results at the Dunhill. Fleetwood’s putting has faltered recently, and he has not finished better than 22nd in his last two appearances at the tournament. Fleetwood is priced at 12-1, but Doctor believes Hatton offers more value in this matchup due to his proven success and consistency at the event.
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Shane Lowry (16:01 - 18:00)
Shane Lowry is priced at 20-1, but Doctor passes on him this week. While Lowry has displayed excellent ball striking, his struggles on the greens make him a questionable pick for the Dunhill Links Championship. Lowry’s putting has been the weak link in his game, and Doctor does not see him contending unless he can turn it around.
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Robert MacIntyre vs. Shane Lowry (18:01 - 21:00)
Will Doctor opts for Robert MacIntyre over Shane Lowry in a head-to-head matchup at even money. MacIntyre has enjoyed a strong season, with two PGA Tour wins and consistent play, particularly with his driving and putting. While his iron play hasn’t been perfect, it has been solid enough to keep him in contention. Doctor sees MacIntyre as the more reliable choice this week, especially given Lowry’s struggles with putting.
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Grant Forrest (22:00 - 25:00)
Grant Forrest is Will Doctor’s first outright pick for the Dunhill, priced at 80-1. Forrest’s recent form has been exceptional, with a 5th-place finish at the Irish Open and a 3rd-place finish at the Open de España. Forrest has also performed well at the Dunhill in the past, finishing in the top 10 in each of the last two years. Doctor also picks Forrest to finish in the top 10 at +375, seeing value in both an outright win and a top-10 finish due to his recent surge in form.
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Tom McKibben (25:01 - 27:00)
Tom McKibben, priced at 60-1, is another outright pick for the week. Although McKibben experienced a rough patch mid-season, he bounced back with a 10th-place finish at the BMW PGA Championship. His driving and iron play have been excellent, and despite concerns about his short game, McKibben’s recent performances make him a value pick for this event.
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Best Bet: Nicholas Norgaard Over Patrick Reed (27:01 - 30:00)
Will Doctor’s best bet for the Dunhill is Nicholas Norgaard over Patrick Reed at -115. Norgaard has been in top form recently, winning the British Masters and finishing 7th at the BMW PGA Championship. Reed, on the other hand, has relied heavily on his putting in recent tournaments, which Doctor views as unsustainable. Norgaard’s consistent all-around game makes him the safer pick in this matchup.
Korn Ferry Tour Championship
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John Pak (30:01 - 33:00)
John Pak is Will Doctor’s outright pick for the KFT Championship, priced at 45-1. Pak has found his form in recent weeks, finishing in the top 15 in his last two starts. Doctor believes Pak is well-positioned to secure his PGA Tour card with a strong performance at the Pete Dye Course.
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Isaiah Salenda (33:01 - 35:00)
Isaiah Salenda is Doctor’s best bet for a top-20 finish at +320. Salenda’s long drives make him a perfect fit for the demanding Pete Dye course, which can stretch to nearly 8,000 yards. Despite a missed cut in his last start, Doctor expects Salenda to bounce back and secure a top-20 finish.
Conclusion
Will Doctor wraps up the episode by reminding listeners to check out his other previews, including the Sanderson Farms Championship, and teases upcoming coverage for future tournaments. His picks for the Alfred Dunhill Links and Korn Ferry Tour Championship offer well-researched analysis on matchups, outright winners, and best bets to help bettors make informed decisions.