CFB Week 4 Betting: USC at Michigan

As Week 4 of the college football season approaches, all eyes are on the marquee matchup between the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines. Both teams are at critical junctures in their respective seasons, but for different reasons. USC, led by quarterback Miller Moss, has generated plenty of excitement with their offense, while Michigan is grappling with a quarterback change and the need for their defense to step up. With USC entering the game as a six-point favorite and the total set at 46.5, bettors and fans alike are trying to piece together how this clash will unfold. This in-depth analysis delves into the quotes from the experts, team stats, and the critical players involved, offering insights that could shape the outcome of this game.

The Michigan Dilemma: A Quarterback in Question

The biggest storyline heading into this game is Michigan’s quarterback change. [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] notes that Michigan has decided to bench Davis Warren, a former walk-on, in favor of five-star recruit Alex Orji. Warren, who started the season, hasn’t been able to deliver the offensive spark Michigan desperately needs. Michigan's struggles were on full display when they were "creamed" by Texas and barely scraped by Arkansas State, a team they were expected to dominate.

Orji, a dual-threat quarterback, presents a new set of possibilities for Michigan, but his inexperience is a concern. As Ben points out, Orji has thrown only six passes this season, with one of those being intercepted. A quarterback change at this point in the season is always a gamble, and Michigan is essentially betting that Orji’s athleticism and potential will provide the spark they need to salvage their season. However, this also puts added pressure on the Michigan defense, which will need to play at an elite level to keep the game within reach while Orji adjusts.

Michigan's Season on Life Support

Ben doesn’t hold back when discussing the precarious position Michigan finds itself in. "Michigan’s season is on life support," he says, pointing to their lackluster performances thus far. The Wolverines didn’t impress in Week 1 against Fresno, and their blowout loss to Texas further exposed the team’s issues. The game against Arkansas State, where Michigan eked out a 10-point win, was not much better. For a program with Michigan’s history and expectations, this season has been a massive disappointment so far.

Despite the offensive struggles, Ben emphasizes that Michigan’s defense remains their biggest hope. "They know they have to carry this team," he says, adding that the defense is likely to “sell out” to stop USC’s explosive offense. The Wolverines’ defense has shown flashes of being able to handle high-powered offenses, but whether they can maintain that level for a full game against USC will be the key to this matchup.

USC’s Offensive Firepower: Moss and Company

On the other side, USC comes into this game with significantly more confidence. [Griffin Warner (0:00 - 0:21)] opens the discussion by noting USC’s status as a six-point favorite, despite playing on the road. This speaks volumes about how much confidence bettors and experts have in the Trojans, especially in comparison to Michigan’s shaky performances. USC’s offense, led by Miller Moss, has put up some impressive numbers so far, including 27 points in their win over LSU.

However, Ben downplays the significance of that victory, suggesting that LSU’s defense may not be as strong as it once was. "I think LSU is the same old LSU team judging by that defensive performance against South Carolina," he says, casting doubt on just how impressive USC’s 27-point outing was. Even so, USC’s offense is undoubtedly a threat, and Michigan will need to find ways to neutralize Moss and his supporting cast.

Betting the Under: Defense vs. Offense

When it comes to betting, both analysts agree that the under is the play. The total for this game is set at 46.5 points, and [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] explains his rationale for leaning towards the under. Given Michigan’s offensive struggles, particularly with Orji stepping into the starting role, the Wolverines are not expected to put up big numbers on the scoreboard. Ben has significant concerns about Michigan’s ability to move the ball effectively, especially with a quarterback who has barely seen the field this season.

Moreover, Michigan’s defense will likely do everything in its power to slow down USC’s offense. Ben points out that the defense is aware of its role as the backbone of this team, and they’ll need to "sell out" to stop USC from scoring. This is likely to result in a more defensive, low-scoring game, which supports the case for betting the under.

[Griffin Warner (2:03 - 2:12)] concurs, adding a bit of humor to the discussion by joking about Orji’s name: "Always concerned about Orji’s with a bunch of Trojans coming into town." While Warner keeps the mood light, his analysis is spot on: Michigan’s offense, with an inexperienced quarterback, and a defense-focused strategy from both teams makes the under 46.5 an appealing option.

Michigan’s Defense: The Key to Victory

Ultimately, this game will likely come down to how well Michigan’s defense can contain USC’s offense. Michigan’s defense has been the one consistent element for the Wolverines this season, and they’ll need to play at an elite level if they hope to keep the game close. Ben highlights that USC’s offense, while effective, may not be as dominant as some think. He questions the significance of USC’s 27 points against LSU, suggesting that Michigan’s defense could potentially hold them to fewer points if they execute their game plan effectively.

If Michigan’s defense can disrupt Miller Moss and the USC offense, they might give Orji and the Wolverines offense enough breathing room to make this a competitive game. However, this will require a near-perfect performance from Michigan’s defense, as they can’t rely on their offense to outscore the Trojans in a shootout.

USC’s Road to Victory: Maintain Offensive Consistency

For USC, the path to victory is relatively straightforward: continue to execute on offense and avoid turnovers. Miller Moss has been effective thus far, but the Trojans will need to be wary of Michigan’s defensive schemes designed to disrupt their rhythm. If USC can score early and force Michigan into uncomfortable passing situations, the Trojans should be able to control the game and cover the spread.

That said, USC’s defense will also play a critical role. While Michigan’s offense is still finding its footing with Orji at the helm, the Trojans can’t afford to underestimate the Wolverines. A few turnovers or big plays from Orji could swing the momentum in Michigan’s favor, so USC’s defense will need to remain disciplined and avoid giving up explosive plays.

Conclusion

The Week 4 matchup between USC and Michigan is set to be a fascinating battle between a high-powered offense and a gritty defense. Michigan’s quarterback switch adds an extra layer of intrigue, as Alex Orji’s inexperience could be a deciding factor. USC enters the game as a six-point favorite, and their offense, led by Miller Moss, will look to capitalize on Michigan’s vulnerabilities. However, Michigan’s defense will do everything it can to keep the game close.

From a betting perspective, both experts agree that the under 46.5 points is the best play, given Michigan’s offensive struggles and the expected defensive intensity. Whether Michigan’s defense can hold up against USC’s offensive firepower remains the biggest question, but one thing is clear: this game will be a pivotal moment in both teams’ seasons.