BMW PGA Championship Picks and Predictions

The BMW PGA Championship brings together top golf talent from across the globe, and this year promises to be no different. Hosted at Wentworth in Surrey, England, the event is a staple of the DP World Tour, and this year's edition holds even greater significance as players battle for PGA Tour cards in the upcoming season. With 10 coveted spots available, every swing counts. This in-depth analysis explores the key players, their past performances, and what to expect as the tournament unfolds. Will Rory McIlroy take the crown? Or will someone like Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, or Matteo Manassero surprise the field?

Breakdown of Key Players and Predictions

Let's dive into the top players and predictions, analyzing their past performances, current form, and what to expect this week at Wentworth.

Rory McIlroy (02:34)

Rory McIlroy enters this week as one of the clear favorites. His performance at the Irish Open last week, where he narrowly missed victory by just one stroke, showed that he’s in excellent form. Rory’s iron play was one of the highlights, and Wentworth is a course that rewards precision.

McIlroy has a history of success here, with finishes no worse than 9th in his last four appearances. His second-place finishes in 2018 and 2022, coupled with a win in 2014, make him a strong contender this year. At +625, McIlroy is a solid pick to take the title, especially given his remarkable consistency in recent weeks. He opened last week with a 68 at Royal County Down and will look to carry that momentum into Thursday's opening round at Wentworth.

Tommy Fleetwood (04:52)

Tommy Fleetwood is another player to watch, but his track record at Wentworth raises some concerns. Fleetwood often struggles to string together four strong rounds at this course. Last year, he opened with excellent scores of 69, 66, and 67, only to falter with a final round of 72. This pattern has played out in previous years, where third-round 77s and final-round 73s have kept him from claiming victory.

Fleetwood’s putting has also been an issue at Wentworth, as he has lost strokes on the greens in four of his last six starts here. As a result, taking Rory McIlroy over Fleetwood in a head-to-head matchup seems like a smart bet, especially with McIlroy priced at -130.

Shane Lowry (06:17)

Shane Lowry is a former winner at Wentworth, claiming the title in 2022 by holding off McIlroy and Jon Rahm. Lowry's love for this course is undeniable, but his recent form is somewhat shaky. He finished 12th at the Irish Open, losing strokes with his irons—a critical aspect of success at Wentworth.

With Lowry priced at 15-1, many bettors might be tempted, but it’s worth noting that elite ball striking is necessary to win here, and Lowry’s iron play has been inconsistent. Stay away from Lowry in matchups, particularly against Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood.

Matteo Manassero (08:05)

One of the most intriguing storylines this week is Matteo Manassero. Currently 9th on the DP World Tour’s order of merit, Manassero is fighting for a spot on the PGA Tour next season. A win at Wentworth would certainly solidify his place, and he's no stranger to success here—Manassero won this event in 2013.

His recent form is also encouraging. After a third-place finish at the Irish Open and five top 10 finishes this season, Manassero is poised for another strong performance. He’s priced at 40-1, making him an excellent value pick for an outright win or a top-10 finish.

Billy Horschel (09:45)

Billy Horschel, the 2021 BMW PGA Champion, returns to Wentworth with something to prove after being snubbed from the President’s Cup roster. Horschel’s recent form, however, hasn’t been stellar. His putting has been inconsistent, and his iron play was below par at the BMW and Tour Championships.

Horschel is priced at 22-1, but given his struggles on the greens and with his irons, it's hard to recommend him as a top contender this week. It’s best to avoid Horschel in outright bets and matchups.

Matchups and Bets to Watch

Beyond outright winners, matchups offer great opportunities for profit this week. Here are some key matchups to keep an eye on:

Rory McIlroy vs. Tommy Fleetwood (12:01)

As mentioned earlier, McIlroy’s track record and current form make him a strong favorite against Fleetwood. McIlroy is priced at -130 in this matchup, and with Fleetwood’s putting struggles, it’s a matchup worth backing.

Matthew Pavan vs. Tom McKibben (13:22)

Pavan comes into this event off a solid showing at the Tour Championship, where he finished 17th. McKibben, on the other hand, has been struggling with his irons and short game. Pavan is priced at even money, making this a favorable bet.

Romain Langasque vs. Jorge Campillo (14:44)

Langasque has had multiple top-5 finishes this season and boasts solid form heading into Wentworth. Campillo, however, has missed the cut in four of his last six starts at this event. Langasque at -110 is a solid play.

Sleeper Pick

Sepp Straka at +320 for a top-10 finish is a great sleeper pick this week. Straka finished 10th at Wentworth in his debut last year and has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the 2024 season. His iron play has been consistent, and his recent improvement on the greens makes him a solid contender for a high finish.

Best Bet

The best bet for the BMW PGA Championship is Matteo Manassero to finish in the top 20, priced at +175. Given his past success at Wentworth and current form, this is a strong value pick. Manassero is highly motivated as he chases a PGA Tour card, and a top-20 finish feels very achievable.

Conclusion

This year’s BMW PGA Championship promises excitement, with top players battling for DP World Tour glory and coveted PGA Tour cards. Rory McIlroy enters as the favorite, but dark horses like Matteo Manassero and Sepp Straka offer value picks. Smart bettors should also focus on key matchups, particularly McIlroy over Fleetwood and Langasque over Campillo. With top-tier golf talent converging at Wentworth, this is sure to be a tournament to remember.

Summary

1. Rory McIlroy at +625 is the favorite due to strong past performances at Wentworth and recent good form.
2. Tommy Fleetwood struggles to maintain consistency over four rounds, making him a risky pick.
3. Shane Lowry, despite past success, is struggling with his iron play, making him a less favorable bet.
4. Matteo Manassero at 40-1 is an excellent value pick given his current form and past success at Wentworth.
5. Billy Horschel is a risky pick due to recent poor form in both putting and iron play.
6. In matchups, take Rory McIlroy over Tommy Fleetwood at -130 and Matthew Pavan over Tom McKibben at even money.
7. Romain Langasque is a solid bet to beat Jorge Campillo at -110.
8. Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka to finish in the top 10 at +320.
9. Matteo Manassero is the best bet for a top-20 finish at +175.
10. Expect a winning score of 17 under par at Wentworth.