ISU vs IA GAME OVER 36.5 -110

I jumped the gun on this one, which was dumb in hindsight. The number is going down. Who knows how far, but I am confident in a 20-17 game at minimum.

Low hanging fruit: Last three games ended with totals of 44, 33 and 17. I think we can explain the two lower scoring games.
1. Last year Rocco Becht getting introduced to a full college football season. Early on, he was going to have his lumps. He threw a pick 6 last year( (which was told the WR ran the wrong route) but happened. He has two elite pass catchers in Higgins and Noel and think they can do damage like great ISU WR in recent history. Add that to a more experienced Becht and I like the ISU offense here if they don't try and out Iowa Iowa.

2. The other game that finished 10-7...Each team fumbled at the 1 yard line going into the endzone. Dekkers also threw another pick in the end zone. Both teams had opportunities to score.

Now to this year. From the ISU perspective, I like the offensive potential from stated above. ISU has plenty of playmakers and trust Becht at this point to perform better than last year. Defensively is where it gets interesting. The LB were already banged up, but they lost their best LB to injury last week. Basicially, a lot of questions if the LB can slow down the run. The other issue is a starting CB. While there is confidence around this current group, they have had NFL corners as of late. I don't believe these guys are on that level. I wouldn't be surprised if IA finds success on the ground and play action with the potential issues ISU D is facing.

That said, if you like Iowa, take them now. They have been better as of late and we know Campbell is bad in toss up games with the spread within 3 or 3.5. Still, I wonder how much Iowa and the under will seem too obvious. Of course, that could be the fan in me, which is why I am currently staying with the total.

Other I already bet:

Duke +3 -110 (Fri 9/6)

I leaned NW when the line was 1, but got bet up to 3 and now back to 2.5 currently. NW was -3 last week against Miami (OH.) I think Duke should not be getting the same number of points. When looking over the previews, I think something stood out. Duke was 7-0 when keeping teams under 4.0 yards per carry. NW was good bc turnover margin. I trust a team that can be good against the run, especially with a new coach that is defensive minded rather than turnover luck. While NW did rush for 4.8 YPC last game, Duke held them to 3.5 last year. Will look for similar outcome this year.

Michigan +7.5 -115

All the early money has come in on Texas, moving this line from 5.5 to 7.5, so I am happy to take over a TD with the home dog. Why? I think there may be some overreaction to game 1. Michigan didn't cover and Texas did. That is too simplistic. Fresno has been a very good program for years and makes sense they would keep it close with all the turnover for Michigan staff and players. However, when you look at the box score for Texas, you'll find 3 TD drives inside 50 yards, one at 55 yards and a FG off CSU going for it 4th and 5 from own 33. I think Michigan plays much more conservative, slow the game down and rely on their D.

Michigan is 20-0 SU last 20 at home. They have only been dogs 4x in last 3 seasons, 2 outright wins against OSU, 1 outright win against Wisc and 1 loss to GA. This seems too many to give to this type of program.

MSU vs MD UNDER 44.5 -110

Straight to the point, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, they have gone 8-1 to the under. Michigan St is also 5-1 last 6 to the under. To be fair, MD is 5-2 to the over last 7. Still, I like the trends between the two teams and think MD offense won't look as good against this MSU D

Will surely add more as we get closer to the weekend.

7-7 posted plays to date

All the best to everyone