Happy New Year! Doc’s leans and wagers are now 23-13, after talking myself off Ole Piss, and Toledo, and going back to look at my wagers themselves. They’re 10-4 ATS +4.2-units. I have a feeling that most of these selections today will not be liked by the majority, and I almost thought about not posting. Since this is the last day Doc said WTH. Here we go!
ReliaQuest Bowl – Wisconsin vs. LSU
Wisconsin Badgers
Opt-Outs: RB Braelon Allen (488 snaps), C Tanor Bortolini (868 snaps), CB Jason Maitre (646 snaps)
Transfer Portal: WR Chimere Dike (550 snaps), WR Skyler Bell (374 snaps), OG Trey Wedig (252 snaps), ED Darian Varner (122 snaps), DL Rodas Johnson (432 snaps), LB Jordan Turner (554 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Bryson Green (547 snaps) and CB Alexander Smith (382 snaps) have been out since Week 11. RB Jackson Acker (198 snaps) missed the regular season finale. RB Chez Mellusi (112 snaps) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4.
Other News: QB Tanner Mordecai is expected to get the start after missing most of the second half of the season with a broken hand.
LSU Tigers
Opt-Outs: QB Jayden Daniels (702 snaps)
Transfer Portal: OG Marlon Martinez (75 snaps), CB Sage Ryan (620 snaps), CB Lawrence Welch (96 snaps)
Player Injuries: DT Mekhi Wingo (344 snaps) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8. LB Whit Weeks (260 snaps) returned from injury in the regular season finale. CBs Duce Chestnut (81 snaps), Denver Harris (217 snaps), and Zy Alexander (418 snaps) will miss the bowl game.
Other News: QB Garrett Nussmeier will start with Daniels opting out. WR Brian Thomas (682 snaps) and WR Malik Nabers (668 snaps) are opt-out candidates to watch.
Former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock accepted an offer to be the new offensive coordinator at Notre Dame.
Doc Notes:
Ratings: Wisconsin 148.5 to LSU 170.8, edge to Bucky
Favorite Subset: LSU doesn’t meet those requirements.
Nine-Point Index: LSU 6-3 edge
Sharp Action: Wisconsin
Quick Read Synopsis: Wisconsin gets their number 1 QB back after missing the last half of the season. LSU wide open on offense even Daniels opting out. Not sure they will show case much Nussmeier though as he nor the Tigers have nothing to prove here.
Bet or pass: 2* Wisconsin +10
Citrus Bowl – Iowa vs. Tennessee
Iowa Hawkeyes
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: QB Spencer Petras (0 snaps), WR Diante Vines (344 snaps)
Player Injuries: Star CB Cooper DeJean (705 snaps) suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 11. QB Cade McNamara (206 snaps), TE Erick All (251 snaps), and TE Luke Lachey (120 snaps) all suffered season-ending injuries. OT Gennings Dunker (661 snaps) missed the Big Ten title game.
Other News:
Tennessee Volunteers
Opt-Outs: QB Joe Milton (772 snaps), RB Jaylen Wright (325 snaps)
Transfer Portal: OG Addison Nichols (116 snaps), ED Tyler Baron (444 snaps), CB Doneiko Slaughter (387 snaps), CB Warren Burrell (166 snaps), CB Brandon Turnage (149 snaps), S Tamarion McDonald (486 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Don’te Thornton (214 snaps), WR Bru McCoy (231 snaps), LB Arion Carter (126 snaps), and CB Kamal Hadden (311 snaps) suffered season-ending injuries. OT Brian Grant (33 snaps), OG Javontez Spraggins (699 snaps), OG Andrej Karic (266 snaps), ED Roman Harrison (301 snaps), DL Omarr Norman-Lott (235 snaps), S Wesley Walker (636 snaps), and S Tamarion McDonald (486 snaps) were all out for the regular season finale.
Other News: With Milton opting out, five-star freshman Nico Iamavella will get his first career collegiate start after attempting just 26 passes this season.
Doc Notes:
Ratings: Tennessee 117.8 Vs. Iowa 100.7, edge Hawkeyes
Favorite Subset: Tennessee does meet this requirement.
Nine-Point Index: Iowa 5-4 edge
Sharp Action: has been on both sides, and today it’s split.
Quick Read Synopsis: Iowa beat SEC Kentucky 21-0 in LY’s Bowl game. The one thing you know for sure with them, is you’ll get a willingness to play strong defense regardless of who plays on that side of the ball. Tennessee starting their 5* Freshmen QB Iamavella, and that said I think they’ll be running solid stuff for confidence building, like OU did with their 5* Freshmen the other not. That young man just had turnover issues. Other than that on yardage & 1st downs OU beat the shit out of Arizona. I digress to the game at hand though. In my opinion is this one means a lot to both programs and coaches. Tennessee’s defense, Vs. Iowa’s offense may be just good enough to win by a TD here. Iowa’s defense will be a good test for the Freshmen QB.
Bet or pass: 1* Tennessee -5.5
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Liberty
Oregon Ducks
Opt-Outs: C Jackson Powers-Johnson (829 snaps), CB Khyree Jackson (520 snaps)
Transfer Portal: QB Ty Thompson (97 snaps), WR Kris Hutson (22 snaps), CB Trikweze Bridges (205 snaps), S Bryan Addison (109 snaps)
Player Injuries: RB Noah Whittington (64 snaps) suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 5. WR Troy Franklin (722 snaps) and ED Jordan Burch (418 snaps) suffered injuries during the Pac-12 title game. CB Jahlil Florence (392 snaps) missed the final two games. WR/KR Gary Bryant Jr. (511 snaps) missed the Pac-12 title game.
Other News: QB Bo Nix and RB Bucky Irving are expected to declare for the NFL Draft but have said they will play in the Fiesta Bowl. Head coach Dan Lanning agreed to a six-year contract extension.
Potential opt-out candidates include WR Troy Franklin (722 snaps), WR Tez Johnson (474 snaps), OT Ajani Cornelius (834 snaps), ED Brandon Dorlus (564 snaps), ED Jordan Burch (418 snaps), and S Tysheem Johnson (748 snaps).
Liberty Flames
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: QB Johnathan Bennett (31 snaps), DL Kendy Charles (336 snaps), DL Tysheik Galloway (118 snaps), ED Bryan Whitehead II (238 snaps), DL Tysheik Galloway (118 snaps), CB Preston Hodge (690 snaps), S Jaylon Jimmerson (160 snaps)
Player Injuries: LB Jerome Jolly Jr. (447 snaps) and S A’Khori Jones (269) missed the C-USA Championship game.
Other News:
Doc Notes:
Ratings: Oregon 87 – Liberty 104.3, edge Oregon
Favorite Subset: Yes, Oregon does meet it.
Nine-Point Index: Oregon 5-3-1 edge
Sharp Action: Oregon early, went to Liberty, but switched back to Oregon today.
Quick Read Synopsis: Liberty has been known to get up for their big games. Hell, almost all their games they cover anyway. It wasn’t too long ago they rolled into Waco and beat a very strong Baylor squad SU as 31-point dogs with a score of 48 to 45 there. The program is just built on being tough year in and year out. The Ducks better come to play, because The Flames won’t be intimidated at all.
Bet or pass: Pass - Hard Lean Liberty +18
Rose Bowl – Michigan vs. Alabama
Michigan Wolverines
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal:
Player Injuries: OG Zak Winter (649 snaps) suffered a season-ending leg injury against Ohio State. CB Will Johnson (410 snaps) also suffered an injury against Ohio State and missed the Big Ten Championship game. LB Junior Colson (543 snaps) will play with a cast on his hand.
Other News:
Alabama Crimson Tide
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: QB Tyler Buchner (39 snaps), WR JaCorey Brooks (142 snaps)
Player Injuries: RB Jase McClellan (401 snaps) missed the SEC Championship. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (788 snaps) left the SEC Championship with a minor concussion but should be able to return for the Rose Bowl.
Other News: Special teams coordinator/outside LBs coach Coleman Hutzler was named Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator/inside LBs coach.
Doc Notes:
Ratings: Alabama 120 to Michigan 61.3, edge Wolverines
Favorite Subset: Absolutely
Nine-Point Index: Michigan 6-3 edge
Sharp Action: Michigan
Quick Read Synopsis: I’m 11-7 ATS since they started these semifinal contests, with a fat 0-2 last year (first time ever I lost both). Michigan is snake bitten in this round, but this is their best defense they’ve ever had, and catch Alabama with their weakest offense since 2013. If not now, then when will be my question for Michigan.
Bet or pass: 1* Michigan -1.5
Sugar Bowl – Washington vs. Texas
Washington Huskies
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: QB Dylan Morris (53 snaps), S Vincent Nunley (213 snaps)
Player Injuries: S Asa Turner (167 snaps) returned for the Pac-12 Championship.
Other News:
Texas Longhorns
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: WR Isaiah Neyor (2 snaps), WR Casey Cain (56 snaps), S Jalen Catalon (142 snaps)
Player Injuries: RB Jonathan Brooks (450 snaps) suffered a season-ending injury. WR Xavier Worthy (764 snaps) was seen on crutches after the Big 12 Championship. CB Ryan Watts (376 snaps) missed the Big 12 Championship. Steve Sarkisian expressed confidence that Worthy and Watts would return in time for the Sugar Bowl.
Doc Notes:
Ratings: Washington 132.5 to Texas’s 71.8, edge Longhorns
Favorite Subset: Yes, but every favorite in the final four have these qualities.
Nine-Point Index: Texas 5-4 edge
Sharp Action: Started on Texas but is now on Washington.
Quick Read Synopsis: It’s Washington’s year, with 6 one score wins, and when you have a special QB like Penix you have to just ride the momentum. These teams usually do well in Bowl contest, and in the final four.
Bet or pass: 2* Washington +4