It's Natty Time!! Dawgs vs Frogs. The semi final games were awesome! Will we get one more in classic in the title game?
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My take on the Michigan- TCU game is this... Michigan looked horribly unprepared. I'm not sure what Jimmy does during the month build for bowl games, but it doesn't work. They looked like they felt they were going to show up and roll TCU. Running a trick play on the 1st possession of the game on 4th down, instead of taking the points? Really? Michigan threw 2 pick 6's, fumbled on the goal line, another time inside the 10 and didn't score, let TCU go 8-16 on 3rd downs, was victim of Harbaugh's terrible game prep and....only lost by 6.
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McCarthy is also a 19yr QB who is usually asked to throw it 22-25 times a game. He had to throw it 34 vs TCU. Not ideal. He's not adapt yet at recognizing defenses and changing the play. Stetson is 37 years old and is superb at getting out of bad plays and into good ones.
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Georgia escaped also. The kicker shanked it or its night night for the Dawgs. That was bad match up for the Dawgs. Loaded roster talent wise, just like them. A month to prep for GA. Multiple offensive weapons and one of the best QB's in the country talent wise. When Harrison went out things changed. Now the Dawgs could just focus on stopping Egbuka and this the Buckeyes only score 6 from there on. Much easier to defend.
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TCU has one big time WR. He'll be contained. Dawgs pass defense problems usually come when there are multiple threats( Metchie/Williams, Harrison/Egbuka) Can TCU run on the Dawgs like they did Michigan? Demercado torched them for 150. Maybe so. But the last running back to go over 100 vs the Dawgs was Chris Rodriguez with Kentucky way back in 2020. So its not likely, but we shall see.
TCU's offensive line is big no doubt. But they arent very athletic, nor do they move well laterally. I feel they'll have issues with GA's DE's. Max hasn't had a great last 2 games passing 49% completion 3 td's and 3 picks. By contrast Stetson is 73% 7td's and 1 pick.
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TCU defense is no great shakes. Ranking 56th in yards per play allowed. They run a 3-3-5 defense. Dawgs played a 3-3-5 defense 2 of the last 3 years in Miss St. Miss St has a better defense than TCU if you go by ypp allowed(#39) and I would say Miss St faced better offenses than TCU did this year. Dawgs hung 45 points on them and rushed for 180 yards. So they wont be surprised on the look.
The TCU linebackers and safeties are not the best in pass defense and the middle of the field will be open as it was vs Michigan. Look for Bowers to exploit this and go off in this game.
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This is also TCU's 1st CFP and Natty game experience. I don't think they have any coach on the staff that has been anywhere close to this far. The build up, travel schedule, implementing a game plan, keeping the players focused, handling the moment, etc. all are going very crucial. GA and Kirby know the in's and out's of this type of week and game lead up. I'm not confident a school and staff that have never even been close to this game are going to be able to handle it perfectly and make no mistake they'll need to be perfect come Monday to keep it close.
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Bottom line is I feel we are going to see a huge talent and coaching mismatch on Monday night. TCU avg recruiting ranking the last 4 seasons is around #45. Dawgs are #2. At some point that much talent discrepancy cant be overcome UNLESS multiple TO's and pick 6's happen. TCU struggled with Kansas State 2 times this season and lost one time. KSU was pumped and primed to take on Alabama in the Sugar. They were motivated. It was a big game for them....It was a bloodbath. I feel we will see about the same. I feel the line was set at almost 2 TD's to try and get as much TCU money as possible. Bovada had this game just last week at -17.5 Dawgs. That feels about right to me.
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We've usually get one blowout in these CFP games. It didn't happen last weekend. I feel the storm is coming Monday. Dawgs control the game on the line, pound the rock a LOT more than they did vs Ohio State. And come the 2nd half, become like a Boa and as the 3 and outs stack up for TCU the life just gets taken away from them. If TCU wins it'll be a great story and a part of me will be happy for them. I just don't see how they get it done unless Georgia just implodes with turnovers, injuries, etc.
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I'm not going to get greedy and wait to see if the line drops more. I'm going ahead and grabbing the -12.5 and predict Dawgs 38-20 for back to back Natty's.
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I wish you all the best of luck on whatever your play is. Its been a fun season once again!!