Hello again everyone! It's 100 degrees here which can only mean one thing...college football is almost back! A few tidbits for the upcoming season:
1. Ralph Michaels, who does quite a bit of quant work, did some research that showed that in a Game 1, a team that is favored by 21 or more points is just 11-25 ATS. I would imagine that his research goes back 2 or 3 years. For the upcoming Week 0 & Week 1 games, this would include Utah State (-28), Tennessee (-31.5), Oklahoma State (-21), Minnesota (-37), Maryland (-21.5), UCLA (-26), Oklahoma (-32.5), Mississippi (-24), USC (-35), Tulane (-30), Alabama (-38.5), Texas (-38.5), Washington (-22) and Clemson (-21). Do with it what you will. Fades off this list that look intriguing to me are Texas and USC. Texas has Alabama coming in during Week 2, so they may look ahead and look past UL Monroe. Lincoln Riley makes his debut at USC, but those of you who followed him at Oklahoma know that his record ATS was atrocious.
2. Those of you who follow me know that I tend to focus on the Big 12. My top 5 in the Big 12 this year would be: 1. Baylor; 2. Oklahoma; 3. Kansas State; 4. Oklahoma State; 5. Texas. Watch out for this K-State team. I think they will be good. The Big 12 media went with Baylor at #1, and I won't argue with it. Disclosure: I am a Baylor alum. Baylor's strength lies in its lines (all the 2 deep players are back on the DL and all but one LB, 4 of 5 starters on the OL and the TE's as well). I also like the continuity with the leadership here. Can Blake Shapen step up to the challenge? That is the question here. With Sept road games at BYU and Iowa State, we will know early about Baylor.
3. Good luck everyone! Let's all get the cash this fall!