I Don't love stand alone games.
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So, let’s simplify things and start at the
top. First and foremost, we don’t want to go against the Tide when
they’re getting points. Think about this: over the last 158 games,
Alabama closed as a lined underdog ONCE, against Georgia, and
Bama won outright. Then there’s Crimson Tide head coach Nick
Saban – the Nicktator, the Sabinator – whose standards of excellence
and results on the fi eld have equaled those of the god-like Paul
‘Bear’ Bryant (Nick’s college coaching tree boasts 21 assistants that
went on to secure a head coaching position). Even though he’s doing
AFLAC commercials with Deion Sanders lately, we think he secretly
longs to be the spokesman for d-CON after becoming the fi rst FBS
coach in history to win three conference championship games as an
underdog when the Tide beat the Dawgs, 41-24, as 6.5-points pups
two games ago. Afterward, Saban confessed to the media that his
players used their rare underdog status as motivation. “You guys
gave us a lot of really positive rat poison,” he said. “The rat poison
that you usually give us is fatal. The rat poison that you put out
there this week was yummy.” And what about Alabama’s resumé?
Six national championships since 2009 (including two without
winning the SEC) and 14 consecutive 10-win seasons, plus this will be
its ninth title game appearance in 13 seasons. Whew! While Georgia
can’t match that level of success, head coach Kirby Smart (a previous
Saban assistant) has put together a Bulldogs team that can go toe-
to-toe with the Tide tonight, and finally get that elephant-sized
monkey off their backs. The Dawgs shook off their loss to Bama by
treating Michigan like they had every other team in 2021, delivering
a one-sided smackdown of the Wolverines in the Orange Bowl’s
semifinal matchup, and giving hope to Georgia fans that they’ve got
their mojo back just in time. In the words of Jaybird The Bulldog,
our SEC Scout, “Georgia may NEVER have a better opportunity to
beat these guys for years to come, so the Dawgs can’t let this slip
away.” Before December’s SEC title game loss to the Tide, Georgia’s
defense was virtually impenetrable. Considering Saban’s crew scored
more points in the second quarter of the SEC Final (24) than the
Dawgs had allowed in any game this season, the defense will need
no further incentive to hit the fi eld breathing fi re. But Bama has a
defense, too, holding unbeaten Cincinnati to 6 points and 284 total
yards in the Tide’s semifi nal win – their 8th game this season in which
the Tide managed to hold an opponent to season-low yardage. The
offenses are very evenly matched, as well, with the loss of key WR
John Metchie negating Alabama’s QB edge with Heisman winner
Bryce Young over UGA’s Stetson Bennett. Just when things are
looking more and more like a stalemate, our mean machine comes
to the rescue with these gems. Saint Nick stands 25-1 SU and 16-10
ATS against former coaches by an average margin of victory of 23.8
PPG, including 4-0 SU versus Smart by an average margin of victory
of 11 PPG. He’s also a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a dog coming off four or
more wins in a row – the same role in which he knocked off Georgia
in the SEC title game last month. In addition, the Dawgs had better
not let the Tide take a double-digit lead in this contest as Alabama
is 60-0 SU in games when leading by 10 or more points (the longest
skein in the nation). The favorite in CFP championship games shows
no real advantage, going 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS all-time, including 0-3
ATS when not undefeated. Bad role for Georgia, too, as the Bulldogs
are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or fewer points when
not coming off consecutive SUATS wins and facing foes coming off a
SUATS win. We could go back-and-forth all day, but the bottom line
is we cannot pass up an opportunity to back the No. 1 ranked team
in the nation as a dog in the biggest game of the season. Look for
the Tide to have their cake and eat it, too, as they kill off the hopes
and dreams of yet another wannabe champion.
Yes, we realize it’s difficult to beat the
same team twice in the same season in
the world of college football, especially
in a postseason game. But there are exceptions
to every rule and this one warrants such an
allowance. It starts with Alabama’s affinity for
winning, going 112-13 since 2008 against SEC
opponents. And we didn’t even include a 64-5
mark against non-conference foes during the
same span. That’s 176-18 overall – including
5-0 SUATS as a single-digit dog. And there is
Nick Saban’s hypnotic 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS
record against former assistants, including 3-0
in the postseason by an average score of 38-10.
Granted, Georgia brings a lot to the table in this
matchup – that’s why they are favored. That and
the reason they had their perfect season ruined
by the Tide just two games ago. But if you want
to add another log to the fire, try Saban’s 93-12
record with Alabama against teams the Tide took
out (defeated) in a most recent meeting. While
we respect Kirby Smart and the ascension of the
Bulldogs under his guide, it’s worth noting they
have held all but one foe to 17 or fewer points
this season, and that was Alabama in the SEC
title game. This contest has all the makings of
another Alabama Hammer.