Baylor by 6
Line Miss -1
After throwing for 3,300 yards for the second straight season, but
being banged-up in the process, early speculation around Oxford was
that QB Matt Corral would skip this game to protect his status as
a likely fi rst-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, Corral was
adamant that despite leaving a year early, missing the Sugar Bowl
today couldn’t be farther from the truth. “It never crossed my mind.
I’m going to give these guys everything I got until it’s over,” said
the outgoing junior. And while we totally respect that non-selfi sh
attitude, we can’t go with Corral to win this contest. This game is
hovering around pick’em, but should the Rebels get a point or two,
we can tell you that Bowl dogs of 4 points or less coming off back-
to-back double-digit wins are 1-7 SUATS over the last six years. Also,
SEC teams are 3-6 ATS in the last nine Sugar Bowls. In fact, teams who
won SU as a dog of more than 6 points in a bowl game the previous
season are just 9-24 ATS if they allow 21.5 or more PPG. Other than
a good bowl history (Ole Miss has covered in 8 of their last nine
bowl appearances), there’s frankly not a lot to like about the Rebs’
chances tonight. Besides, with head coach Dave Aranda completing a
turnaround for the ages with this Baylor team in his second season, it
wouldn’t be right to pick against him. Bowl teams off a Championship
game underdog win are 12-4 ATS, and if favored, we’ll toss in the
fact that Bowl favorites of less than 5 points and coming off 4+ SU
wins are 5-1 ATS. Finally, the Bears were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS versus
fellow bowlers this season – and that fi gures to get the job done in
this match-up.
BAYLOR... Bowl teams off Championship dog win
are 12-4... Bowl favorites who won 2 or fewer games
the previous season are 4-11 ATS since 1984.
MISSISSIPPI... 8-1 ATS L9 Bowls... SEC bowl dogs
10-2 ATS L5Y... Bowl dogs < 4 pts off BBB DD losses
are 1-7 ATS... 3-11 ATS L14 as dogs < 6 pts.