Original Projection Ohio St by 3
Update Projection Utah by 3
Line Ohio St -4
In simple terms, Utah is the team no one wanted to face in a major
bowl game. After a 1-2 start to the season put CFP hopes to bed
early, the Utes won 9 out of ten, and throttled Oregon (the team
that beat Ohio State earlier this year) TWICE down the stretch. The
numbers for the Utes today are impressive as well. They are 5-1 SUATS
in their last six as Bowl dogs, and 14-5-1 ATS overall when getting
points, which fi ts well with the mean machine’s revelation that Bowl
dogs of more than 5 points that are coming off consecutive wins of
more than 2 TDs are 9-3 ATS. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is
also 21-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points (12-1 ATS in his last 13
games), 11-3 SU in bowl games, and 12-1 ATS versus a foe who owns
a better record and is coming off win. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are
6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games when coming off a loss. Even
scarier, Bowl favorites of 2 or more points that are coming off a SU
favorite loss are 2-9 against the number. You have to expect Bucky
to be fl atter than your first grammar school date after blowing an
opportunity to earn a Playoff berth for the fourth straight season.
This may be the Rose Bowl, but it’s NOT the Orange Bowl, which is
where they would be had they beat Michigan in the Big Ten title
game. QB C.J. Stroud has the talent and the targets in Chris Olave,
Garret Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (215 receptions and 31 TD
catches combined) to bring home a win for OSU, but covering the
number against a red-hot Utah squad could be another story. THIS
JUST IN: OSU coach Ryan Day told reporters that receivers Garrett
Wilson and Chris Olave, offensive tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere and
defensive lineman Haskell Garrett are declaring for the NFL draft and
will NOT play in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
UTAH... 8-2 as Bowl dogs... Bowl dogs 5 > pts off BBB
wins 14 > pts are 9-3 ATS...14-5-1 L20 as underdogs...
Bowl teams who allowed < 14 pts L3 gms are 1-7 ATS.
OHIO STATE... 6-3 ATS L9 Bowls... 5-1 ATS as Bowl
favs 3 > pts... 12-3 ATS L15 vs Pac-12... No. 1 team in
the nation in overall Total Offense (551.4).
In its day, landing a trip to the Rose Bowl was
the coupe de grace in the world of college
bowls. However, with the advent of the College
Football Playoff, that thinking is off the table. While
it still is held in high esteem, it’s NOT THE ORANGE
BOWL for the Buckeyes, which is where they had
visions of playing in the CFB Playoff Semifi nal game
prior to having the rug pulled out from underneath
them by Michigan in the Big Ten title game. It’s
also not the CFB Playoff title game, where Ohio
State was last seen knocking heads with Alabama
in last year’s postseason. Couple it with the fact
that star WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and
two other starters have opted out of this game
to declare for this year’s NFL Draft, and suddenly
you’re left with a team not exactly brimming with
confidence. Enter the Utes, winners of the Pac-12
title game for the first time ever, bursting at the
seams and giddy to be playing in their initial Rose
Bowl. Utah need not any better incentive.