Air Force / Nevada Over 53
First glance might get a guy to the under in this one. Two 7-3 teams with strength vs weaknesses. Nevada love to pass - AF has a highly rated pass D. AF obviously runs like mad - Nevada plays the run well.
Nevada Run D #48, Total D #66
Air Force Pass Eff D #31, Total D #4
However, digging a bit deeper gets me to see these ratings on defense may be skewed to favor the defenses due to whom they have played.
Air Force's vaunted D/Pass D has faced the following teams (followed by passing YPG ranking out of 130)
CSU #75, Army #128, SDSU #125, BSU #29, WY #122, NM #127, FAU #65, NAV #130 and LAF #83.
Highest ranked team they played in this area is Utah St #16. Result : 49 points. You could argue Boise at #29 (17 pts) was legit competition and it was. Something to consider from that game is Boise threw a pick, lost a fumble and had 8 penalties for -75 yds.
Nevada is #4 ranked passing offense YPG.
Nevada's defense meanwhile seems decent, and 48th Total Run D is so. However digging deeper again, these numbers could also be skewed by facing a few crappy teams that didn't even try to run against the Wolf Pack. Teams that DID attempt to run against them, put up the following yardage:
Cal 153, KSU 269, Fresno 205, SDSU 186, Idaho St 141, Hawaii 188 and San Jose 161
Air Force #1 ranked run game at 304 YPG
Combine this information with a nice football weather forecast...8 TDs gets us well over...28-28 neighborhood....I think we get there
TGIF and Good luck to all