Memphis +8.5 -110 ***
a lot to say about this game…let’s start with everywhere I look Houston is the pick, yet the line dropped earlier this week from 9.5 to 8.5.
Both teams are bad rushing the ball (83rd YPA,) but Memphis has a better overall YPP: 6.1 to 5.7. Defensively. Houston is 15th in YPP, while Memphis is 41st, or 4.8 to 5.2. Comparable. Def rush is 3.2 for Houston, 3.7 for Memphis. Not a huge difference despite hearing how great the Houston D is…
I also can’t get over the close wins and losses for each team. Houston has won 3 games by 1 score and didn’t cover in the two games they were favorites (Navy, ECU.) also took a kickoff TD to best SMU in the last seconds.
Memphis has lost 5 games, by 3,3,6, 1 and 17! With QB being a late scratch. Memphis doesn’t lose big. Also, Memphis lost to ECU on a 2 pt try in OT vs ECU, Houston gave up a lead to go to Ot with same ECU, to win after the forced a fumble.
point is Memphis isn’t as bad as 5-5 and Houston with the ranked number behind them might not be as good as we think.
Houston backers can point to Memphis being 0-8 ATS on the road and that is a valid concern. However, they are 6-0 ATS be Houston and 6-2 ATS on the road against Houston.
In summary. Memphis is similar in stats without being blown out. This game would make them bowl eligible and think Houston will get too much love as the day goes in.
thinking about the ML also…
32-25 posted
All the best